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Journal Article

Curtis A. Deutsch, Joshua J. Tewksbury, Michelle Tigchelaar, David S. Battisti, Scott C. Merrill, Raymond B. Huey, Rosamond L. Naylor
Science, 2018

Our Report draws attention to a complex but understudied issue: How will climate warming alter losses of major food crops to insect pests? Because empirical evidence on plant-insect-climate interactions is scarce and geographically localized, we developed a physiologically based model that incorporates strong and well-established effects of temperature on metabolic rates and on population growth rates.

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Journal Article

George Azzari, Patricio Grassini, Juan Ignaci, Rattalino Edreira, Shawn Conley, Spyridon Mourtzinis, David Lobell
Remote Sensing of Environment, 2018

Low-intensity tillage has become more popular among farmers in the United States and many other regions.

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Working Paper

Rosamond L. Naylor, et al.
Aspen Global Change Institute, 2018

Increased intake of fruits and vegetables (F&V) is recommended for most populations across the globe. However, the current state of global and regional food systems is such that F&V availability, the production required to sustain them, and consumer food choices are all severely deficient to meet this need.

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Journal Article

Tannis Thorlakson
Business Strategy and Development, 2018

Companies' sustainable sourcing practices play an increasing role in addressing the social and environmental challenges in agricultural supply chains. Yet the approaches companies take to regulate their supply chains continue to evolve. I use the chocolate industry as a critical case to explore how and why companies have changed their approaches to sustainable cocoa sourcing over the last 20 years.

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Journal Article

Curtis A. Deutsch, Joshua J. Tewksbury, Michelle Tigchelaar, David S. Battisti, Scott C. Merrill, Raymond B. Huey, Rosamond L. Naylor
Science, 2018

Crop responses to climate warming suggest that yields will decrease as growing-season temperatures increase. Deutsch et al. show that this effect may be exacerbated by insect pests (see the Perspective by Riegler). Insects already consume 5 to 20% of major grain crops. The authors' models show that for the three most important grain crops—wheat, rice, and maize—yield lost to insects will increase by 10 to 25% per degree Celsius of warming, hitting hardest in the temperate zone.

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Journal Article

Zachary Wagner, Sam Heft-Neal, Zulfiqar A Bhutta,Robert E Black, Marshall Burke, Eran Bendavid
The Lancet, 2018

The extent to which armed conflicts—events such as civil wars, rebellions, and interstate conflicts—are an important driver of child mortality is unclear. While young children are rarely direct combatants in armed conflict, the violent and destructive nature of such events might harm vulnerable populations residing in conflict-affected areas. A 2017 review estimated that deaths of individuals not involved in combat outnumber deaths of those directly involved in the conflict, often more than five to one.

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Journal Article

Quentin Grafton, J. Williams, C. J. Perry, F. Molle, C. Ringler, P. Steduto, B. Udall, S. A. Wheeler, Y. Wang, D. Garrick, R. G. Allen
Science, 2018

Reconciling higher freshwater demands with finite freshwater resources remains one of the great policy dilemmas.

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Journal Article

Jonathan Proctor, Solomon Hsiang, Jennifer Burney, Marshall Burke, Wolfram Schlenker
Nature, 2018

Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures

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Journal Article

Marshall Burke, Felipe González, Patrick Baylis, Sam Heft-Neal, Ceren Baysan, Sanjay Basu, and Solomon Hsiang
Nature Climate Change, 2018

Linkages between climate and mental health are often theorized, but remain poorly quantified. In particular, it is unknown whether the rate of suicide, a leading cause of death globally, is systematically affected by climatic conditions. Using comprehensive data from multiple decades for both the United States and Mexico, we find that suicide rates rise 0.7% in US counties and 2.1% in Mexican municipalities for a 1 °C increase in monthly average temperature. This effect is similar in hotter versus cooler regions and has not diminished over time, indicating limited historical adaptation.

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Journal Article

Christopher Weyant, Margaret L. Brandeau, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Eran Bendavid, Sanjay Basu
PLOS Medicine, 2018

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are anticipated to decrease the zinc and iron concentrations of crops. The associated disease burden and optimal mitigation strategies remain unknown. We sought to understand where and to what extent increasing carbon dioxide concentrations may increase the global burden of nutritional deficiencies through changes in crop nutrient concentrations, and the effects of potential mitigation strategies.

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Journal Article

Sam Heft-Neal, Jennifer Burney, Eran Bendavid, Marshall Burke (198750)
Nature, 2018

Poor air quality is thought to be an important mortality risk factor globally

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Journal Article

Michelle Tigchelaar, David S. Battisti, Rosamond L. Naylor, Deepak K. Ray
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2018

Climate-induced shocks in grain production are a major contributor to global market volatility, which creates uncertainty for cereal farmers and agribusiness and reduces food access for poor consumers when production falls and prices spike.

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Journal Article

Marshall Burke, W. Matt Davis, Noah Diffenbaugh
Nature, 2018

International climate change agreements typically specify global warming thresholds as policy targets, but the relative economic benefits of achieving these temperature targets remain poorly underst

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Journal Article

Bing Wang, Ling Cao, Fiorenza Micheli, Rosamond L. Naylor, Oliver B. Fringer
Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 2018

Aquaculture in many countries around the world has become the biggest source of seafood for human consumption. While it alleviates the pressure on wild capture fisheries, the long-term impacts of large-scale, intensive aquaculture on natural coastal systems need to be better understood. In particular, aquaculture may alter habitat and exceed the carrying capacity of coastal marine ecosystems.

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Journal Article

P. A. Turner, Christopher B. Field, David Lobell, D. L. Sanchez, K. J. Mach
Nature Sustainability , 2018

Integrated assessment models generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets.

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Working Paper

Marshall Burke, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, Edward Miguel
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2018

Large and regular seasonal price fluctuations in local grain markets appear to offer African farmers substantial inter-temporal arbitrage opportunities, but these opportunities remain largely unexploited: small-scale farmers are commonly observed to "sell low and buy high" rather than the reverse. In a field experiment in Kenya, we show that credit market imperfections limit farmers' abilities to move grain inter-temporally.

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Journal Article

Claudia Tebaldi, David Lobell
Environmental Research Letters, 2018

The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 ºC not exceed, a 1.5 ºC with overshoot and a 2.0ºC) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize.

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Working Paper

David Lobell, George Azzari, Marshall Burke, Gourlay,Sydney, Zhenong Jin, Kilic,Talip, Murray,Siobhan
World Bank Group, 2018

Crop yields in smallholder systems are traditionally assessed using farmer-reported information in surveys, occasionally by crop cuts for a sub-section of a farmer's plot, and rarely using full-plot harvests. Accuracy and cost vary dramatically across methods. In parallel, satellite data is improving in terms of spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution needed to discern performance on smallholder plots.

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Journal Article

Ling Cao, Muhammad Sajjad, Yangfan Li, Zhenghong Tang, Ling Cao, Xiaoping Liu
Earth's Future, 2018

Worldwide, humans are facing high risks from natural hazards, especially in coastal regions with high population densities. Rising sea levels due to global warming are making coastal communities’ infrastructure vulnerable to natural disasters.

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Journal Article

Rosamond L. Naylor
2018

Ending world hunger is a universal goal, yet progress and social awareness of the issue waxes and wanes in the course of broader political and economic developments. The massive famine in China under Chairman Mao’s 1958–62 Great Leap Forward, a succession of severe droughts and associated famines in India in 1965–66, and the political violence that accompanied regime change in Indonesia in 1964–67 left tens of millions of people starving and drew global attention to the threat of food insecurity.

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Journal Article

Jillian Fry, Nicholas Mailloux, David Love, Michael Milli, Ling Cao
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 13, Number 2, 2018

Globally, demand for food animal products is rising. At the same time, we face mounting, related pressures including limited natural resources, negative environmental externalities, climate disruption, and population growth.

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Journal Article

Tannis Thorlakson, Jens Hainmueller, Eric Lambin
Global Environmental Change, 2017

Food retailers and manufacturers are increasingly committing to address agricultural sustainability issues in their supply chains. In place of using established eco-certifications, many companies define their own supply chain sustainability standards.

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Journal Article

Rosamond L. Naylor, Matt Higgins
Global Food Security, 2017

Policies that promote biofuels in major agricultural economies raise important questions for food prices and food security at local to global scales. Global biofuel output rose from 38 billion liters to 131 billion liters between 2005 and 2015, boosting the demand for annual- and perennial-crop feedstocks such as maize, sugar, soy, rapeseed, and palm oil. Although ethanol volume was three times that of biodiesel in 2015, the share of biodiesel in total biofuel output rose from 10% to almost 25% over the course of the decade (EIA, n.d.; REN21, 2016).

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Journal Article

Daniel W. Urban, Justin Sheffield, David Lobell
Nature Climate Change, 2017

A critical question for agricultural production and food security is how water demand for staple crops will respond to climate and carbon dioxide (CO

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Journal Article

Elsa Ordway, Rosamond L. Naylor, Raymond N. Nkongho, Eric Lambin
Global Environmental Change, 2017

Oil palm production expanded 1.2 million hectares in sub-Saharan Africa since 1990, with expansion accelerating in several heavily forested countries since 2000.

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