Variability and Growth in Grain Yields 1950-1994: Does the Record Point to Greater Instability?

The race between population and food is a classic theme, yet the outcome of this contest is of enduring contemporary interest. Interestingly, the two variables that are set opposite one another in the race are fundamentally different in character. Population is primarily a stock concept that rises monotonically (when births exceed deaths), whereas food production is overwhelmingly a flow variable that exhibits substantial year-to-year fluctuations. These latter fluctuations, in turn, cause significant economic and nutritional consequences at the household level. The changes are especially important for the poor, even beyond the consequences caused by trend levels of food consumption per capita. In addition, amplifications of price and production variability often produce compensating changes in national food policies. If countries seek to stabilize domestic grain prices, the unintended effect of these actions is further destabilization of global grain markets.