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David S. Battisti
Journal Articles

Model vs. experiment to predict crop losses—Response

Curtis A. Deutsch, Joshua J. Tewksbury, Michelle Tigchelaar, David S. Battisti, Scott C. Merrill, Raymond B. Huey, Rosamond L. Naylor
Science, 2018 December 7, 2018

Our Report draws attention to a complex but understudied issue: How will climate warming alter losses of major food crops to insect pests? Because empirical evidence on plant-insect-climate interactions is scarce and geographically localized, we developed a physiologically based model that incorporates strong and well-established effects of temperature on metabolic rates and on population growth rates.

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Journal Articles

Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate

Curtis A. Deutsch, Joshua J. Tewksbury, Michelle Tigchelaar, David S. Battisti, Scott C. Merrill, Raymond B. Huey, Rosamond L. Naylor
Science, 2018 August 31, 2018

Crop responses to climate warming suggest that yields will decrease as growing-season temperatures increase. Deutsch et al. show that this effect may be exacerbated by insect pests (see the Perspective by Riegler). Insects already consume 5 to 20% of major grain crops. The authors' models show that for the three most important grain crops—wheat, rice, and maize—yield lost to insects will increase by 10 to 25% per degree Celsius of warming, hitting hardest in the temperate zone.

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Journal Articles

Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks

Michelle Tigchelaar, David S. Battisti, Rosamond L. Naylor, Deepak K. Ray
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2018 June 11, 2018

Climate-induced shocks in grain production are a major contributor to global market volatility, which creates uncertainty for cereal farmers and agribusiness and reduces food access for poor consumers when production falls and prices spike.

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Books

Seeds of Sustainability: Lessons from the Birthplace of the Green Revolution

Pamela Matson, Walter P. Falcon, Ashley Dean, Rosamond L. Naylor, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Peter Jewett, Ellen McCullough, Michael Beman, Amy Luers, David Lobell, Toby Ahrens, John Harrison, Gerrit Schoups, Lee Addams, David S. Battisti, Jose Luis Minjares
Island Press, 2011 November 25, 2011

Seeds of Sustainability is a groundbreaking analysis of agricultural development and transitions toward more sustainable management in one region. An invaluable resource for researchers, policymakers, and students alike, it examines new approaches to make agricultural landscapes healthier for both the environment and people.

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Journal Articles

Orographic Controls on Climate and Paleoclimate of Asia: Thermal and Mechanical Roles for the Tibetan Plateau

Peter Molnar, William Boos, David S. Battisti
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2010 December 31, 2010

Prevailing opinion assigns the Tibetan Plateau a crucial role in shaping Asian climate, primarily by heating of the atmosphere over Tibet during spring and summer. Accordingly, the growth of the plateau in geologic time should have written a signature on Asian paleoclimate. Recent work on Asian climate, however, challenges some of these views. The high Tibetan Plateau may affect the South Asian monsoon less by heating the overlying atmosphere than by simply acting as an obstacle to southward flow of cool, dry air.

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Journal Articles

Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China's rice production

Deng Xiangzheng, Huang Jikun, Qiao Fangbin, Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon, Marshall Burke, Scott Rozelle, David Battisti
Journal of Geographcial Sciences, 2010 December 31, 2010

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect.

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Policy Briefs

Results summary from NSF-funded project - Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Events (ENSO) on Chinese Rice Prouduction and the World Rice Market

Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon, David S. Battisti, Richard Palmer, Scott Rozelle, Xiangzheng Deng, Jikun Huang, Marshall Burke
Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, 2010 August 1, 2010
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Journal Articles

The Source of the Midwinter Suppression in Storminess over the North Pacific

Sandra Penny, Gerard Roe, David S. Battisti
Journal of Climate, 2010 February 1, 2010

Feature-tracking techniques are employed to investigate why there is a relative minimum in storminess during winter within the Pacific storm track (the midwinter suppression). It is found that the frequency and amplitude of disturbances entering the Pacific storm track from midlatitude Asia are substantially reduced during winter relative to fall and spring and that the magnitude of this reduction is more than sufficient to account for the midwinter supression.

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Journal Articles

Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat

David S. Battisti, Rosamond L. Naylor
Science, 2009 December 31, 2009

Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations.

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Journal Articles

Downscaling Indonesia Precipitation using Large-Scale Meteorological Fields

Dan Vimont, David S. Battisti, Rosamond L. Naylor
International Journal of Climatology, 2009 July 22, 2009

This study investigates the skill of linear methods for downscaling provincial-scale precipitation over Indonesia from fields that describe the large-scale circulation and hydrological cycle. The study is motivated by the strong link between large-scale variations in the monsoon and the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and regional precipitation, and the subsequent impact of regional precipitation on rice production in Indonesia.

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Journal Articles

Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture

Rosamond L. Naylor, David S. Battisti, Walter P. Falcon, Marshall Burke, Daniel Vimont
PNAS, 2007 May 8, 2007
El Nino events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Nino events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali.

We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur.

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