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Marshall Burke
Journal Articles

Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture

Rosamond L. Naylor, David S. Battisti, Walter P. Falcon, Marshall Burke, Daniel Vimont
PNAS, 2007 May 8, 2007
El Nino events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Nino events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali.

We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur.

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Journal Articles

Aquaculture and Ocean Resources: Raising Tigers of the Sea

Rosamond L. Naylor, Marshall Burke
Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2005 December 31, 2005

With continued human pressure on marine fisheries and ocean resources,

aquaculture has become one of the most promising avenues for increasing

marine fish production in the future. This review presents recent trends and future

prospects for the aquaculture industry, with particular attention paid to ocean farming

and carnivorous finfish species. The benefits of farming carnivorous fish have been

challenged; extensive research on salmon has shown that farming such fish can have

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Journal Articles

Using Climate Models to Improve Indonesian Food Security

Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond L. Naylor, Whitney L. Smith, Marshall Burke, Ellen McCullough
Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 2004 December 31, 2004

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice.

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