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Rosamond L. Naylor
Books

Coping with Climate Risks in Indonesia Rice Agriculture: A Policy Perspective

Rosamond L. Naylor, Michael D. Mastrandrea
Springer in "Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making", 2009 December 31, 2009

In this chapter, we focus specifically on agricultural risks and uncertainties related to climate variability and global climate change from a policy viewpoint. Policymakers have little control over the weather, which is driven by very short-run (hourly to daily) patterns in atmosphere and ocean circulation. With good scientific information, however, policymakers in many regions can anticipate longer-run (monthly, yearly, decadal) climate variability and climate change reflected in patterns of

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Journal Articles

Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat

David S. Battisti, Rosamond L. Naylor
Science, 2009 December 31, 2009

Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations.

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Journal Articles

Feeding Aquaculture in an Era of Finite Resources

Rosamond L. Naylor, Ronald W. HardyRonald W. Hardy, Dominique P. Bureau, Alice Chiu, Matthew Elliott, Anthony P. Farrell, Ian Forster, Delbert M. Gatlin, Rebecca J. Goldburg, Katheline Hua, Peter D. Nichols
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 2009 September 8, 2009

Aquaculture’s pressure on forage fisheries remains hotly contested. This article reviews trends in fishmeal and fish oil use in industrial aquafeeds, showing reduced inclusion rates but greater total use associated with increased aquaculture production and demand for fish high in long-chain omega-3 oils. The ratio of wild fisheries inputs to farmed fish output has fallen to 0.63 for the aquaculture sector as a whole but remains as high as 5.0 for Atlantic salmon.

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Journal Articles

El Nino-Southern Oscillation impacts on rice production in Luzon, the Philippines

Martha G. Roberts, David Dawe, Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond Naylor
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2009 August 1, 2009

This study uses regression analysis to evaluate the relationships among sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) averaged over the Niño-3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W), rainfall, and rice production, area harvested, and yield in Luzon, the large island on which most Philippine rice is grown. Previous research on Philippine rice production and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has found negative associations between El Niño events and rice yields in rainfed systems. This analysis goes further and shows that both irrigated and rainfed ecosystems are impacted.

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Journal Articles

Downscaling Indonesia Precipitation using Large-Scale Meteorological Fields

Dan Vimont, David S. Battisti, Rosamond L. Naylor
International Journal of Climatology, 2009 July 22, 2009

This study investigates the skill of linear methods for downscaling provincial-scale precipitation over Indonesia from fields that describe the large-scale circulation and hydrological cycle. The study is motivated by the strong link between large-scale variations in the monsoon and the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and regional precipitation, and the subsequent impact of regional precipitation on rice production in Indonesia.

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Journal Articles

Nutrient Imbalances in Agricultural Development

Peter Vitousek, Rosamond Naylor, et al
Science, 2009 June 19, 2009

Nutrient cycles link agricultural systems to their societies and surroundings; inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus in particular are essential for high crop yields, but downstream and downwind losses of these same nutrients diminish environmental quality and human well-being. Agricultural nutrient balances differ substantially with economic development, from inputs that are inadequate to maintain soil fertility in parts of many developing countries, particularly those of sub-Saharan Africa, to excessive and environmentally damaging surpluses in many developed and rapidly growing economies.

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Books

Managing Food Production Systems for Resilience

Rosamond Naylor
Springer, in "Principles of Natural Resource Stewardship: Resilience-Based Management in a Changing World", Chapin, Kofinas, Folke (eds), 2009 March 1, 2009
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Journal Articles

Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030

David Lobell, Marshall Burke, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond L. Naylor
Science, 2008 December 31, 2008
Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change will inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. We present several quantitative criteria that could be used to prioritize these investments, with a focus on global food security impacts by 2030. An analysis of climate risks for 94 crops across 12 food insecure regions is first conducted, based on statistical crop models and climate projections from 20 general circulation models. Subsets of crops are then identified based on different criteria, such as the impacts under
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Journal Articles

Our Daily Bread: Without public investment, the food crisis will only get worse

Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon
Boston Review, 2008 September 1, 2008

During the eighteen months after January 2007, cereal prices doubled, setting off a world food crisis. In the United States, rising food prices have been a pocketbook annoyance. Most Americans can opt to buy lower-priced sources of calories and proteins and eat out less frequently. But for nearly half of the world’s population—the 2.5 billion people who live on less than $2 per day—rising costs mean fewer meals, smaller portions, stunted children, and higher infant mortality rates.

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Journal Articles

Increasing Wildfire in Alaska's Boreal Forest: Pathways to Potential Solutions of a Wicked Problem

F. Stuart Chapin III, Sarah F. Trainor, Orville Huntington, Amy L. Lovecraft, Erika Zavaleta, David C. Natcher, A. David McGuire, Joanna L. Nelson, Lily Ray, Monika Calef, Nancy Fresco, Henry Huntington, T. Scott Rupp, La'ona DeWilde, Rosamond Naylor
BioScience, 2008 June 1, 2008

Recent global environmental and social changes have created a set of "wicked problems" for which there are no optimal solutions. In this article, we illustrate the wicked nature of such problems by describing the effects of global warming on the wildfire regime and indigenous communities in Alaska, and we suggest an approach for minimizing negative impacts and maximizing positive outcomes. Warming has led to an increase in the areal extent of wildfire in Alaska, which increases fire risk to rural indigenous communities and reduces short-term subsistence opportunities.

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Journal Articles

Is it Africa's Turn? Progress in the World's Poorest Region

Rosamond L. Naylor, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Edward Miguel, Robert Bates, Ken Banks, Olu Ajakaiye, David N. Weil, Smita Singh, Paul Collier, Rachel Glennerster
Boston Review, 2008 May 1, 2008

By the turn of this century, sub-Saharan Africa had experienced twenty-five years of economic and political disaster. While "economic miracles" in China and India raised hundreds of millions from extreme poverty, Africa seemed to have been overtaken by violent conflict and mass destitution, and ranked lowest in the world in just about every economic and social indicator. In the May/June 2008 issue of the Boston Review, economist Edward Miguel tracks comparably hopeful economic trends throughout sub-Saharan Africa and suggests that we may be seeing a turnaround.

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Journal Articles

International trade in meat - The tip of the pork chop

Jim Galloway, Marshall Burke, Eric Bradford, Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon, Harold A. Mooney, Joanne Gaskell, Kirsten Oleson, Ellen McCollough, Henning Steinfeld
Ambio, 2007 December 1, 2007

This paper provides an original account of global land, water and nitrogen use in support of industrialized livestock production and trade, with emphasis on two of the fastest growing sectors, pork and poultry. Our analysis focuses on trade in feed and animal products, using a new model that calculates the amount of "virtual" nitrogen, water and land used in production but not embedded in the product.

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Journal Articles

The Ripple Effect: Biofuels, Food Security, and the Environment

Rosamond L. Naylor, Adam Liska, Marshall Burke, Walter P. Falcon, Joanne Gaskell, Scott Rozelle, Kenneth Cassman
Environment, 2007 November 1, 2007

The integration of the agricultural and energy sectors caused by rapid growth in the biofuels market signals a new era in food policy and sustainable development. For the first time in decades, agricultural commodity markets could experience a sustained increase in prices, breaking the long-term price decline that has benefited food consumers worldwide. Whether this transition occurs, and how it will affect global hunger and poverty, remain to be seen. Will food markets begin to track the volatile energy market in terms of price and availability?

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Journal Articles

Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture

Rosamond L. Naylor, David S. Battisti, Walter P. Falcon, Marshall Burke, Daniel Vimont
PNAS, 2007 May 8, 2007
El Nino events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Nino events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali.

We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur.

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Working Papers

Project Timeline: Program for the Study of Biofuels, Poverty and Food Security

Jikun Huang, Mark Rosengrant, Scott Rozelle, Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon, David Victor, Kenneth Cassman
, 2007 February 1, 2007

A concept note about setting up an international program for studying the effects of the emergence of biofuels on global poverty and food security. 

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Journal Articles

A Case Study of Land Reform and Coastal Land Transformation in Southern Sonora, Mexico

Amy Luers, Rosamond L. Naylor, Pamela Matson
Land Use Policy, 2006 December 31, 2006
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Journal Articles

Offshore Aquaculture Legislation

Rosamond L. Naylor
Science, 2006 September 8, 2006

In an editiorial printed in Science magazine, aquaculture specialist Rosamond Naylor comments on the impact of the newly introduced National Offshore Aquaculture bill which establishes a permitting process for offshore aquaculture development within federal waters of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and encourages private investment in aquaculture operations, demonstrations, and research.

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Journal Articles

Business Strategies for Conservation on Private Lands: Koa Forestry as a Case Study

Josh Goldstein, James B. Friday, Pamela Matson, Rosamond L. Naylor, Peter Vitousek
Proceedings for the National Academy of Sciences, 2006 June 27, 2006

Innovative financial instruments are being created to reward conservation on private, working lands. Major design challenges remain, however, to make investments in biodiversity and ecosystem services economically attractive and commonplace. From a business perspective, three key financial barriers for advancing conservation land uses must frequently be addressed: high up-front costs, long time periods with no revenue, and high project risk due to long time horizons and uncertainty.

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Journal Articles

Aquaculture and Ocean Resources: Raising Tigers of the Sea

Rosamond L. Naylor, Marshall Burke
Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2005 December 31, 2005

With continued human pressure on marine fisheries and ocean resources,

aquaculture has become one of the most promising avenues for increasing

marine fish production in the future. This review presents recent trends and future

prospects for the aquaculture industry, with particular attention paid to ocean farming

and carnivorous finfish species. The benefits of farming carnivorous fish have been

challenged; extensive research on salmon has shown that farming such fish can have

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Books

Biodiversity regulation of ecosystem services. Chapter 11

S Díaz, D Tilman, J Fargione, FS Chapin, R Dirzo, T Kitzberger, B Gemmill, M Zobel, M Vilá, C Mitchell, A Wilby, Gretchen C. Daily, M Galetti, WF Laurance, J Pretty, Rosamond Naylor, A Power, D Harvell
Island Press, Washington, DC in "Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Current State and Trends.", 2005 December 31, 2005

Humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively in the last 50 years than in any comparable period of human history. We have done this to meet the growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber, and fuel. While changes to ecosystems have enhanced the well-being of billions of people, they have also caused a substantial and largely irreversible loss in diversity of life on Earth, and have strained the capacity of ecosystems to continue providing critical services.

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Journal Articles

Rethinking Food Security for the 21st Century

Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond L. Naylor
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2005 December 31, 2005

In this article, we examine why concerns about food security have diminished, at least relative to earlier periods. We argue that it should be in the interest of agricultural economists to return this concept to the G-8 agenda in light of the clear linkages between agricultural development, economic growth, food security, and national security in poor countries.

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Journal Articles

Analysis of Wheat Yield and Climate Trends in Mexico

David Lobell, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Gregory P. Asner, Pamela Matson, Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon
Field Crops Research, 2005 December 31, 2005

Wheat yields in Mexico, which represent an important measure of breeding and management progress in developing world wheat production, have increased by 25% over the past two decades. Using a combination of mechanistic and statistical models, we show that much of this increase can be attributed to climatic trends in Northwest states, in particular cooling of growing season nighttime temperatures.

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Journal Articles

Losing the Links Between Livestock and Land

Rosamond L. Naylor, Henning Steinfeld, Walter P. Falcon, James Galloway, Vaclav Smil, Eric Bradford, Jackie Alder, Harold A. Mooney
Science, 2005 December 9, 2005

Global meat production is becoming increasingly industrialized, spatially concentrated, and geographically detached from the agricultural land base. This Policy Forum reviews the process of livestock industrialization and globalization, and its consequences for water, nitrogen, and species-rich habitats in meat- and feed-producing regions often vastly separated in space.

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Pages