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Wolfram Schlenker
Journal Articles

Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions

Jonathan Proctor, Solomon Hsiang, Jennifer Burney, Marshall Burke, Wolfram Schlenker
Nature , 2018

Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures

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Journal Articles

The effects of extremely wet planting conditions on maize and soybean yields

Dan Urban, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker, David Lobell
Climatic Change , 2015

Short durations of very high spring soil moisture can influence crop yields in many ways, including delaying planting and damaging young crops. The central United States has seen a significant upward trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in the 20th century, potentially leading to more frequent occurrences of saturated or nearly saturated fields during the planting season, yet the impacts of these changes on crop yields are not known. Here we investigate the yield response to excess spring moisture for both maize and soybean in the U.S.

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Journal Articles

Greater sensitivity to drought accompanies maize yield increase in the US Midwest

David Lobell, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker, Bertis B. Little, Roderick M. Rejesus, Graeme L. Hammer
Science , 2014

A key question for climate change adaptation is whether existing cropping systems can become less sensitive to climate variations. We use a field-level dataset on maize and soybean yields in the central United States for 1995 through 2012 to examine changes in drought sensitivity. Although yields have increased in absolute value under all levels of stress for both crops, the sensitivity of maize yields to drought stress associated with high vapor pressure deficits has increased.

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Journal Articles

The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

David Lobell, Graeme L. Hammer, Greg McLean, Carlos Messina, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker
Nature Climate Change , 2013

Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States and elsewhere have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30°C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms.

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Journal Articles

Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields

Dan Urban, Michael Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker, David Lobell
Climatic Change , 2012

Climate change has the potential to be a source of increased variability if crops are more frequently exposed to damaging weather conditions. Yield variability could respond to a shift in the frequency of extreme events to which crops are susceptible, or if weather becomes more variable. Here we focus on the United States, which produces about 40% of the world’s maize, much of it in areas that are expected to see increased interannual variability in temperature.

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Policy Briefs

Climate trend and global crop production since 1980

David Lobell, Wolfram Schlenker, Justin Costa-Roberts
, 2011

One way of understanding how climate change is likely to affect global food production and food security is to better understand the recent past. That is, how have changes al-ready influenced agricultural activities and production? For example, considerable debate has taken place on whether future impacts in agriculture will be driven mainly by rising temperatures, or if instead precipitation changes are the main concern. The answer to this would influence strategies to adapt, such as investing in heat tolerance versus waiting for better rainfall projections.

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Journal Articles

Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980

David Lobell, Wolfram Schlenker, Justin Costa-Roberts
Science , 2011

Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. Here we show that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends for 1980-2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8% and 5.5%, respectively, compared to a counter-factual without climate trends.

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Journal Articles

Robust Negative Impacts of Climate Change on African Agriculture

Wolfram Schlenker, David Lobell
Environmental Research Letters , 2010

There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops.

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