Publications

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    Journal Article

    Walter Falcon
    Farming Magazine, 2012

    The American Midwest is suffering through the driest summer in decades, and Stanford economist Walter Falcon is watching the corn wither in his fields. He writes how the drought is affecting crops, prices and the livelihoods of his fellow farmers in Iowa. 

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    Journal Article

    Prabhu Pingali
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012

    Reprinted with full permission from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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    Journal Article

    David Lobell
    Environmental Research Letters, 2012

    In Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass, Alice finds herself running as fast as she can but not moving anywhere. The Red Queen explains to her 'Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that.'

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    Book

    Hans Binswanger-Mkhize
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, 2012

    This paper looks at past and likely future agricultural growth and rural poverty reduction in the context of the overall Indian economy. The growth of India’s economy has accelerated sharply since the late 1980s, but agriculture has not followed suit. Rural population and especially the labor force are continuing to rise rapidly. Meanwhile, rural-urban migration remains slow, primarily because the urban sector is not generating large numbers of jobs in labor-intensive manufacturing.

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    Working Paper

    Rosamond Naylor, Ashley Dean
    Food Security, 2012

    For most scholars the concept of security encompasses issues of state legitimacy, economic and political sovereignty, and protection from military, nuclear, or terrorist assault. Yet billions of people, particularly in the developing world, face more severe, individual security threats on a daily basis, such as inadequate nutrition, disease burdens, lack of potable water, and risks of sexual assault or human trafficking. Such human security concerns can become national security issues when citizens rise up against their governments or threaten to rebel.

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    Journal Article

    Dan Urban, Michael Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker, David Lobell
    Climatic Change, 2012

    Climate change has the potential to be a source of increased variability if crops are more frequently exposed to damaging weather conditions. Yield variability could respond to a shift in the frequency of extreme events to which crops are susceptible, or if weather becomes more variable. Here we focus on the United States, which produces about 40% of the world’s maize, much of it in areas that are expected to see increased interannual variability in temperature.

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    Journal Article

    David Lobell, Adam Sibley, J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio
    Nature Climate Change, 2012

    An important source of uncertainty in anticipating the effects of climate change on agriculture is limited understanding of crop responses to extremely high temperatures. This uncertainty partly reflects the relative lack of observations of crop behaviour in farmers’ fields under extreme heat. We used nine years of satellite measurements of wheat growth in northern India to monitor rates of wheat senescence following exposure to temperatures greater than 34°C.

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    Journal Article

    J. Pongratz, David Lobell, L. Cao, K. Calderia
    Nature Climate Change, 2012

    Crop models predict that recent and future climate change may have adverse effects on crop yields. Intentional deflection of sunlight away from the Earth could diminish the amount of climate change in a high-CO2 world. However, it has been suggested that this diminution would come at the cost of threatening the food and water supply for billions of people. Here, we carry out high-CO2, geoengineering and control simulations using two climate models to predict the effects on global crop yields.

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    Book

    T.S. Jayne, Jordan Chamberlin, Milu Muyanga
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, 2012

    Despite the fact that sub-Saharan Africa in 2012 contains much of the world’s unutilized and underutilized arable land, a significant and growing share of Africa’s farm households live in densely populated areas.

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    Journal Article

    David Lobell, Christopher Field
    Climatic Change, 2011

    Perennial crops are among the most valuable of California’s diverse agricultural products. They are also potentially the most influenced by information on future climate, since individual plants are commonly grown for more than 30 years. This study evaluated the impacts of future climate changes on the 20 most valuable perennial crops in California, using a combination of statistical crop models and downscaled climate model projections.

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    Policy Brief

    Shinyoung Jeon
    2011 International Conference on Asia Agriculture and Animal IPCBEE, 2011

    This paper examines different paths and challenges in stages of agricultural transformation in two Asian countries. It contrasts their respective mechanisms of labor transfer from the agriculture sector to non- agriculture sectors and the up-skilling of the agricultural labor force in the process of an agricultural transformation. The paper describes this as a critical contribution from agriculture to economic growth.

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    Book

    David Lobell
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, 2011

    This paper was prepared for Stanford University’s Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment, and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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    Dissertation

    Kaitlin Shilling
    2011

    Climate change will lead to massive conflicts, according to claims of such prominent sources as Sir Nicholas Stern and the US National Security Agency - claims repeated by the media. Efforts to tease a specific climate change signal from historical records of civil conflict have proved inconclusive, however: they postulate that farmers will become fighters when resources become critically scarce; but they have been unable to illuminate what specific mechanisms may be involved.

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    Book

    Pamela Matson, Walter P. Falcon, Ashley Dean, Rosamond L. Naylor, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Peter Jewett, Ellen McCullough, Michael Beman, Amy Luers, David Lobell, Toby Ahrens, John Harrison, Gerrit Schoups, Lee Addams, David S. Battisti, Jose Luis Minjares
    Island Press, 2011

    Seeds of Sustainability is a groundbreaking analysis of agricultural development and transitions toward more sustainable management in one region. An invaluable resource for researchers, policymakers, and students alike, it examines new approaches to make agricultural landscapes healthier for both the environment and people.

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    Journal Article

    Jennifer Burney, Rosamond Naylor
    World Development, 2011

    Promotion of smallholder irrigation is cited as a strategy for enhancing income generation and food security for sub-Saharan Africa’s poor farmers, but what makes this technology a successful poverty alleviation tool? In the short run, the technology should pave the way for increased consumption, asset accumulation, and reduced persistent poverty among users. Over the longer run, it should lead to institutional feedbacks that support sustained economic development and nutritional improvements.

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    Policy Brief

    Shinyoung Jeon, et al.
    International Labour Organization, 2011
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    Policy Brief

    Shinyoung Jeon, et al.
    International Labour Organization, 2011
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    Book

    Philip G. Pardey
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, 2011

    This paper was prepared for Stanford University’s Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment, and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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    Book

    Shinyoung Jeon, Olga Strietska-Ilina, Christine Hofmann, Mercedes Durán Haro
    International Labour Organization, 2011

    This volume examines the experiences of 21 developed and developing countries in adjusting their training provision to meet the new demands of a greener economy. It shows that skills development is critical to unlocking the employment potential of green growth, yet skills shortages are becoming an obstacle in realizing this potential. The report recommends that countries devise strategies based on well-informed policy decisions, social dialogue, and coordination among ministries and between employers and training providers.

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    Journal Article

    Rosamond Naylor, Walter Falcon
    The American Interest, 2011

    World leaders are focused on agricultural supply data, insurance schemes and speculation as they try to quell volatility in global food markets. They should also turn their attention to perhaps the leading cause of price instability: U.S. ethanol policy.

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    Journal Article

    Luiz Martinelli, Rachael Garrett, Silvio Ferraz, Rosamond L. Naylor
    Agricultural Systems, 2011

    Sugar and ethanol production are key components of Brazil's rural development and energy strategies, yet in recent years sugar production has been widely criticized for its environmental and labor practices. This study examines the relationship between rural development and sugarcane, ethanol, and cattle production in the state of São Paulo.

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    Book

    Peter Timmer
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, 2011

    This paper serves as background to the fourth presentation in a Symposium Series on Global Food Policy and Food Security hosted by the Center on Food Security and Environment at Stanford University and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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    Journal Article

    Ellen McCullough, Pamela Matson
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011

    Knowledge systems—networks of linked actors, organizations, and objects that perform a number of knowledge-related functions that link knowledge and know how with action—have played a key role in fostering agricultural development over the last 50 years. We examine the evolution of the knowledge system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico, a region often described as the home of the green revolution for wheat, tracing changes in the functions of critical knowledge system participants, information flows, and research priorities.

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    Policy Brief

    David Lobell, Wolfram Schlenker, Justin Costa-Roberts
    2011

    One way of understanding how climate change is likely to affect global food production and food security is to better understand the recent past. That is, how have changes al-ready influenced agricultural activities and production? For example, considerable debate has taken place on whether future impacts in agriculture will be driven mainly by rising temperatures, or if instead precipitation changes are the main concern. The answer to this would influence strategies to adapt, such as investing in heat tolerance versus waiting for better rainfall projections.

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