Publications

Filter:

Filter results Close
    Journal Article

    David Lobell, Wolfram Schlenker, Justin Costa-Roberts
    Science, 2011

    Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. Here we show that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends for 1980-2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8% and 5.5%, respectively, compared to a counter-factual without climate trends.

    Show body
    Book

    Christopher Barrett
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, 2011

    This paper was prepared for Stanford University’s Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment, and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.


    Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is home to two-thirds of the world’s ultra-poor today. This paper offers current thinking on the structural causes of the spatially concentrated, persistent ultra-poverty that has plagued Africa for a generation and some key entry points for facilitating Africans’ escape from persistent ultra-poverty.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Rosamond Naylor
    Food Security, 2011

    The challenges of reducing global hunger and poverty are different today than they were 30 years ago. Current challenges include price volatility associated with increased integration of food, energy, and finance markets; the steady progression of climate change; poorly defined land institutions; and a failure to break vicious cycles of malnutrition and infectious disease.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Scott Loarie, David Lobell, Greg P. Asner, Qiaozhen Mu, Christopher Field
    Nature Climate Change, 2011

    The increasing global demand for biofuels will require conversion of conventional agricultural or natural ecosystems. Expanding biofuel production into areas now used for agriculture reduces the need to clear natural ecosystems, leading to indirect climate benefits through reduced greenhouse-gas emissions and faster payback of carbon debts. Biofuel expansion may also cause direct, local climate changes by altering surface albedo and evapotranspiration, but these effects have been poorly documented.

    Show body
    Book

    Ousmane Badiane
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, 2011

    This paper was prepared for Stanford University’s Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment, and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The talk was delivered April 7, 2011.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    P. Rowhani, David Lobell, M. Linderman, N. Ramankutty
    Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2011

    Improved understanding of the influence of climate on agricultural production is needed to cope with expected changes in temperature and precipitation, and an increasing number of undernourished people in food insecure regions. Many studies have shown the importance of seasonal climatic means in explaining crop yields. However, climate variability is expected to increase in some regions and have significant consequences on food production beyond the impacts of changes in climatic means.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    David Lobell, Marianne Banziger, Cosmos Magorokosho, Bindiganavile Vivek
    Nature Climate Change, 2011

    New approaches are needed to accelerate understanding of climate impacts on crop yields, particularly in tropical regions. Past studies have relied mainly on crop-simulation models, or statistical analyses based on reported harvest data, each with considerable uncertainties and limited applicability to tropical systems. However, a wealth of historical crop-trial data exists in the tropics that has been previously untapped for climate research.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Matei Georgescu, David Lobell, Christopher Field
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011

    Biomass-derived energy offers the potential to increase energy security while mitigating anthropogenic climate change, but a successful path toward increased production requires a thorough accounting of costs and benefits. Until recently, the efficacy of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on biogeochemical consequences.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Subhas K. Venayagamoorthy, Hyeyun Ku, Oliver B. Fringer, Alice Chiu, Rosamond L. Naylor, Jeffrey R. Koseff,
    Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 2011

    Marine aquaculture is expanding rapidly without reliable quantification of effluents. The present study focuses on understanding the transport of dissolved wastes from aquaculture pens in near-coastal environments using the hydrodynamics code SUNTANS (Stanford Unstructured Nonhydrostatic Terrain-following Adaptive Navier-Stokes Simulator), which employs unstructured grids to compute flows in the coastal ocean at very high resolution.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    S.A Ahmed, N. Diffenbaugh, Thomas Hertel, David Lobell, N. Ramankutty, A. Rios, P. Rowhani
    Global Environmental Change, 2011

    Climate volatility could change in the future, with important implications for agricultural productivity. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have severe implications for poverty. This study uses climate model projections, statistical crop models, and general equilibrium economic simulations to determine how the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to impoverishment by climate variability could change between the late 20th Century and the early 21st Century.

    Show body
    Working Paper

    2011

    This Statement summarizes the results of the third in a series of consultations between agricultural scientists (in particular those interested in the conservation and use of crop diversity in plant improvement) and climate scientists on how to adapt agriculture to climate change. The first meeting, also held at Bellagio (3-7 September 2007), looked at the Conservation and Use of Global Crop Genetic Resources in the Face of Climate Change.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Glwadys Gbetibouo, R.H. Hassan, C. Ringler
    Agrekon, 2010

    This paper examines climate adaptation strategies of farmers in the Limpopo Basin of South Africa. Survey results show that while many farmers noticed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation, most could not take remedial action. Lack of access to credit and water were cited as the main factors inhibiting adaptation. Common adaptation responses reported included diversifying crops, changing varieties and planting dates, using irrigation, and supplementing livestock feed.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Peter Molnar, William Boos, David S. Battisti
    Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2010

    Prevailing opinion assigns the Tibetan Plateau a crucial role in shaping Asian climate, primarily by heating of the atmosphere over Tibet during spring and summer. Accordingly, the growth of the plateau in geologic time should have written a signature on Asian paleoclimate. Recent work on Asian climate, however, challenges some of these views. The high Tibetan Plateau may affect the South Asian monsoon less by heating the overlying atmosphere than by simply acting as an obstacle to southward flow of cool, dry air.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Deng Xiangzheng, Huang Jikun, Qiao Fangbin, Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon, Marshall Burke, Scott Rozelle, David Battisti
    Journal of Geographcial Sciences, 2010

    This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Holly Gibbs, et al.
    Conservation Letters, 2010

    Deforestation is a main driver of climate change and biodiversity loss. An incentive mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is being negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Here we use the best available global datasets on terrestrial biodiversity and carbon storage to map and investigate potential synergies between carbon and biodiversity-oriented conservation. A strong association (rS= 0.82) between carbon stocks and species richness suggests such synergies would be high, but unevenly distributed.

    Show body
    Book

    David Lobell, Marshall Burke
    Springer, 2010

    Roughly a billion people around the world continue to live in state of chronic hunger and food insecurity. Unfortunately, efforts to improve their livelihoods must now unfold in the context of a rapidly changing climate, in which warming temperatures and changing rainfall regimes could threaten the basic productivity of the agricultural systems on which most of the world's poor directly depend.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Luiz Martinelli, Rosamond L. Naylor, Peter Vitousek, Paulo Moutinho
    Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2010

    Brazil has developed a large-scale commercial agricultural system, recognized worldwide for its role in domestic economic growth and expanding exports. However, the success of this sector has been associated with widespread destruction of Brazilian ecosystems, especially the Cerrado and the Brazilian Amazon rainforest, as well as environmental degradation. Brazil's agricultural development has also led to land consolidation, aggravating a historical land distribution inequality.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon
    Population and Development Review, 2010

    The recent upheavals in staple food prices, financial markets, and the global economy raise questions about the state of food insecurity, the nature of price variability, and the appropriate strategies for international agricultural development. For decades preceding this turmoil, agriculture had received waning attention from the global development community as real food prices declined on trend. Analysts who worried about food insecurity focused on the fate of poor producers.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Holly Gibbs
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010

    Expanding croplands to meet the needs of a growing population, changing diets, and biofuel production comes at the cost of reduced carbon stocks in natural vegetation and soils. Here, we present a spatially explicit global analysis of tradeoffs between carbon stocks and current crop yields. The difference among regions is striking. For example, for each unit of land cleared, the tropics lose nearly two times as much carbon (∼120 tons·ha-1 vs. ∼63 tons·ha-1) and produce less than one-half the annual crop yield compared with temperate regions (1.71 tons·ha-1·y-1 vs. 3.84 tons·ha-1·y-1).

    Show body
    Journal Article

    David Lobell, Marshall Burke
    Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2010

    Predicting the potential effects of climate change on crop yields requires a model of how crops respond to weather. As predictions from different models often disagree, understanding the sources of this divergence is central to building a more robust picture of climate change's likely impacts. A common approach is to use statistical models trained on historical yields and some simplified measurements of weather, such as growing season average temperature and precipitation.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Holly Gibbs, A. S. Ruesch, F. Achard, M. K. Clayton, P. Holmgren, N. Ramankutty, J. A. Foley
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010

    Global demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and fuel is now a major driver of cropland and pasture expansion across much of the developing world. Whether these new agricultural lands replace forests, degraded forests, or grasslands greatly influences the environmental consequences of expansion. Although the general pattern is known, there still is no definitive quantification of these land-cover changes.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Glwadys Gbetibouo, Claudia Ringler, Rashid Hassan
    Natural Resources Forum, 2010

    This paper analyses the vulnerability of South African agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio-economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity.

    Show body
    Policy Brief

    Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon, David S. Battisti, Richard Palmer, Scott Rozelle, Xiangzheng Deng, Jikun Huang, Marshall Burke
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, 2010
    Show body
    Journal Article

    Luiz Martinelli, et al.
    Science, 2010

    Is it possible to combine modern tropical agriculture with environmental conservation? Brazilian agriculture offers encouraging examples that achieve high production together with adequate environmental protection. However, these effective practices may soon lose ground to the conventional custom of resource overexploitation and environmental degradation.

    Show body
    Journal Article

    Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John A. Dykema, David Lobell
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010

    In a recent paper, we documented strong historical linkages between temperature and civil conflict in Africa (1). Sutton et al. (2) raise two concerns with our findings: that the relationship between temperature and war is based on common trends and is therefore spurious, and that our model appears overly sensitive to small specification changes. Both concerns reflect a basic misunderstanding of the analysis.

    Show body

    Pages