Recent Scholarly Publications

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The Evolving Sphere of Food Security

September 2014

The Evolving Sphere of Food Security seeks to answer two important questions: How do the priorities and challenges of achieving food security change over time as countries develop economically?

Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades

July 2014

In many discussions of climate change impacts in agriculture, the large magnitudes of expected impacts toward the end of the century are used to emphasize that most of the risks are to future...

Climate Engineering Reconsidered

June 2014

Stratospheric injection of sulphate aerosols has been advocated as an emergency geoengineering measure to tackle dangerous climate change, or as a stop-gap until atmospheric carbon dioxide levels...

Climate change adaptation in crop production: Beware of illusions

June 2014

• Adaptation should be defined strictly as actions that reduce climate change impacts.• Many studies that claim to show adaptation benefits do not satisfy this definition.• Three main causes of ...

Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change

May 2014

Projecting the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires knowing or assuming how farmers will adapt.

Greater sensitivity to drought accompanies maize yield increase in the US Midwest

May 2014

A key question for climate change adaptation is whether existing cropping systems can become less sensitive to climate variations.

A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

March 2014

Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society.

Frontiers in Food Policy: Perspectives on Sub-Saharan Africa

December 2013

Frontiers in Food Policy: Perspectives on sub-Saharan Africa is a compilation of research stemming from the Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food...

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

August 2013

Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described....

Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

June 2013

Video abstract   Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean...

Estimating the world's potentially available cropland using a bottom-up approach

June 2013

Previous estimates of the land area available for future cropland expansion relied on global-scale climate, soil and terrain data.

Errors in climate datasets and their effects on statistical crop models

March 2013

Although weather data are widely acknowledged to contain measurement errors, the implications of these errors for models that relate weather to yields have not been adequately examined.

The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

March 2013

Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States and elsewhere have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30 °C (or...

Simulated hydroclimatic impacts of projected Brazilian sugarcane expansion

March 2013

Sugarcane area is currently expanding in Brazil, largely in response to domestic and international demand for sugar-based ethanol.

Reduction of transpiration and altered nutrient allocation contribute to nutrient decline of crops grown in elevated CO2 concentrations

March 2013

Plants grown in elevated [CO2] have lower protein and mineral concentrations compared with plants grown in ambient [CO2].

Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

February 2013

Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture.

Evaluating the Contribution of Weather to Maize and Wheat Yield Trends in 12 U.S. Counties

December 2012

Evaluating the contribution of weather and its individual components to recent yield trends can be useful to predict the response of crop production to future climate change, but different modeling...

An assessment of wheat yield sensitivity and breeding gains in hot environments

December 2012

Genetic improvements in heat tolerance of wheat provide a potential adaptation response to long-term warming trends, and may also boost yields in wheat-growing areas already subject to heat stress....

Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields

March 2012

Climate change has the potential to be a source of increased variability if crops are more frequently exposed to damaging weather conditions.

Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India

January 2012

An important source of uncertainty in anticipating the effects of climate change on agriculture is limited understanding of crop responses to extremely high temperatures.

Crop yields in a geoengineered climate

January 2012

Crop models predict that recent and future climate change may have adverse effects on crop yields.

California perennial crops in a changing climate

December 2011

Perennial crops are among the most valuable of California’s diverse agricultural products.

Cimate Change and Agricultural Adaptation

December 2011

This paper was prepared for Stanford University’s Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment, and supported by the Bill and...

Seeds of Sustainability: Lessons from the Birthplace of the Green Revolution

November 2011

Seeds of Sustainability is a groundbreaking analysis of agricultural development and transitions toward more sustainable management in one region.