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In regions of rural China where health education is limited, parents know more about the nutritional needs of their pigs than of their own children. And while piglets are raised to be robust and ready to command high market prices, infants in this part of the world suffer from high rates of anemia and cognitive delays that put them – and the country’s economy – at risk, according to Stanford researchers.

Those researchers are now experimenting with ways to encourage parents to feed their children more nutritious food. And they’re hoping their results will push the Chinese government to implement policies to curb malnutrition, especially anemia.

“Anemia acts like an invisible drag on the Chinese economy,” says Scott Rozelle, director of the Rural Education Action Program (REAP) at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). REAP is a part of FSI's Center on Food Security and the Environment.

Rozelle and his colleagues spearheaded a survey of 1,800 babies in Shaanxi province that shows the scope and impact of malnutrition throughout the region. Their findings will soon be published.

A map of Shaanxi province, where the REAP survey was carried out.
Photo Credit: Wikipedia

Despite China’s rapid economic growth in recent decades, anemia among rural populations remains widespread. Left untreated, anemia decreases oxygen to the brain and can hurt cognitive and physical development. The World Health Organization estimates that effective treatment of anemia can improve national economic productivity by up to 20 percent. Other research has shown that the long-term effects can be even greater.

But poor nutrition is only partially to blame for the high rates of cognitive delays that the researchers discovered. Rozelle and his team also found that most parents don’t spend enough time playing and talking with their babies. In general, parenting practices in the region do not involve providing babies with mental stimulation, which is also an important part of cognitive development.

 

Testing and treating 1,800 babies

Rozelle and his colleagues first set out to understand the scope of the problem by measuring anemia rates among rural Chinese babies. Between April and October, 2013, REAP administered the largest survey of rural baby nutrition ever conducted in China. Over the course of four weeks, a team of around 120 surveyors tested 1,824 babies in 351 poor, rural villages across Shaanxi Province.

The researchers found that in the region, where pig farming is one of the main industries, more than three times as many parents had accurate information about pig nutrition than about baby nutrition. When asked whether micronutrients are necessary for the healthy growth of baby pigs, over 70 percent of caretakers responded “yes”. But only 21 percent of caretakers believed that micronutrients are also important for human babies.

The researchers also found that 49 percent of the children in the survey had anemia, an additional 28 percent were "near-anemic" and 40 percent showed significant cognitive or motor delays. These rates exceed the global average for children and indicate widespread deficiencies in child nutrition in the region.

A REAP surveyor tests how a baby reacts to his own reflection.
Photo Credit: REAP

The REAP team then set up an experiment. One third of households were given a free daily supply of nutritional supplements for their children. Another third were given the same free supplements, and were enrolled in a text message reminder program. A final third of households served as a control group. The study is ongoing through April, 2015, but 12 months into the program, the researchers have found that the supplements have reduced anemia rates by 28 percent, although cognitive delays have persisted.

 

Anemia linked to poor diets

In contrast with their children, the parents who participated in the survey seemed to be well-fed and showed relatively low levels of anemia (19 percent). Many also reported purchasing expensive baby formula for their children, indicating a willingness to spend financial resources on child nutrition. The problem therefore seems to be not one of poverty, but rather one of information: parents are unknowingly feeding their children food that is lacking in iron and other micronutrients.

The nutrients missing from the babies’ diets are plentiful in solid foods such as fruits, vegetables, and lean meat. International standards for child nutrition advise that complementary foods be introduced to infants at around six months of age. By one year of age, solids should make up more than half of a child’s diet.

Parents in the REAP study, however, waited until between one year and 18 months to introduce solid foods. Many mothers stopped breastfeeding at six months, switching their babies to diets consisting mostly of rice porridge or wheat-flour based soups.

Many parents said early childhood diets were unimportant for healthy development.

“I don’t think the foods he eats matter since he doesn’t eat that much,” one parent told the researchers.  Another insisted, “Formula and porridge are good enough for my baby. He is always happy after mealtime.”

 

The “Hidden Hungry”

Sometimes described as “hidden hunger,” micronutrient deficiencies like anemia can go undetected because those afflicted often look healthy. Young children can appear to be well fed or even overweight, but still lack critical nutrients for normal development. In remote places where blood tests are unavailable, it can be impossible to tell that a child is anemic.

A nurse tests a child's blood for signs of anemia.
Photo Credit: REAP

But about 25 percent of the world’s population is anemic, making the condition the most common form of malnutrition. About 25 percent of people are anemic worldwide, including half of pregnant women and 40 percent of children under the age of five.

The effects of anemia, however, are most severe among infants and toddlers. The damage it causes is difficult to reverse after the first several years of life.

 

Nutritional Myths

Rozelle’s team found several misconceptions about infant health and nutrition. One myth was especially common: that babies cannot digest solid food until they can walk.

“I wouldn’t dare give her anything before that,” said one parent. Soft, clean foods are good for my baby. Hard foods are not healthy.”

Some parents even assumed that soft foods were better for their child’s cognitive development. “A good way to make him smarter is to feed him starches and rice. You can’t feed him hard food,” explained a mother about her young son.

The interviews also highlighted a lack of knowledge about malnutrition, and about the links between nutrition and health. “Genes cause malnutrition,” said one mother. “You’ll know if your skin turns pale and you become really thirsty.”

Another answered, “[Anemia] is caused by not eating enough.” When asked how anemia is treated, answers included drinking sugary water, adding red sauce to food, eating peanuts, getting a blood transfusion at the hospital, and taking traditional Chinese medicine.

In reality, anemia can be treated at home with a daily low-cost iron supplement (like the one being distributed as part of the REAP study), or simply by adding more iron-rich foods to a child’s diet.

 

 “No one ever told me how to feed my baby”

The pervasiveness of misinformation about baby nutrition stems from a lack of access to health and nutrition education. As one mother explained, “No one ever told me how to feed my baby.” The majority of interviewees reported relying on older family members for guidance on how to feed and care for children.

Local doctors do little to encourage proper child health care. Many prescribe medicines to treat immediate symptoms of malnutrition, such as colds or diarrhea, without addressing underlying issues.

One parent whose baby was found to be anemic reported, “The doctor never said anything to help me understand my child. He just told me to buy some rice powder and medicine.”

A mother participating in the REAP study answers questions about her baby's diet.
Photo Credit: REAP

Other parents refuse to see a doctor at all. An interviewee with two young sons admitted to having never taken her children for a check-up for fear that her fertility would be monitored under China’s one-child policy.  Some mothers said they relied on traditional Chinese medicine to treat health problems rather than visit doctors.

Parents also frequently relied on information from local baby formula sales representatives. When asked how she makes decisions about her baby’s health, one mother reported, “I read the booklets at the formula store for information.” Perhaps unsurprisingly, this same mother was late in introducing solid foods to her child, and during the interview fed her 15-month-old child a type of formula that stated clearly on the label that it was suitable only for babies up to 12 months of age.

“The formula salesperson said to ignore that,” she explained.

 

Nourishing the Future

The REAP team designed an experiment to tackle both problems: infants’ poor diets and parents’ lack of nutritional knowledge. The project, called Nourishing the Future, was funded by the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, UBS Optimus Foundation, China Medical Board and others.

A NurtureMate nutritional supplement packet, made by Heinz.
Photo Credit: REAP

Each household in the study, with the exception of a control group, received a one-year supply of daily supplement packets called NurtureMate, manufactured by Heinz, another partner in the project. The powdered mix of iron, zinc, folic acid, and vitamins can be added to milk or formula, or sprinkled on porridge.

In addition to supplements, the treatment group received instruction in the basics of childhood nutrition. At 8:00 every morning, half of the treatment group also received a daily text message reminder to administer the packets: “Have you taken your NurtureMate today? Your baby needs the nutrients to grown strong and stay healthy!”

Text message reminders appear to have been modestly effective in improving program compliance. Caregivers who received the reminders gave their baby the micronutrient supplements, on average, 10 percent more often over the course of the first six months of the study. So far, however, this improved compliance has not led to a corresponding fall in anemia rates.

 

Other factors influence infant development

Although anemia rates fell among the two treatment groups, Rozelle’s team found no cognitive improvements.

“It’s still early, but it’s becoming clear that nutrition is not the only piece of the puzzle,” says Alexis Medina, the project manager of Nourishing the Future. “Several things affect brain development in young kids. One is nutrition. Another is the mental stimulation that children get through games, toys and face-to-face interaction with adults.”

The babies Medina and her team evaluated had very few toys or books at home, and received minimal attention from their caretakers in terms of playing, singing and talking.

“A lot of parents we talked to didn’t think much about whether they were playing with their kids enough,” Medina said. “But some actually thought it was a waste of time. We had several mothers tell us, ‘Babies don’t remember much when they’re young, so I don’t bother talking or reading to [my baby]. They can’t understand me yet anyway, so what’s the point?’”

 

Changing policy

With its first high-quality data sets in hand, REAP is now looking for long-term answers to the child malnutrition epidemic in China.

“Sure, we can help the 1,800 babies who are participating in our study now, but what about the other 10 million babies just like them?” asks Rozelle. “To reach all of China’s at-risk babies – that’s our ultimate objective. And to do that, we need an effective government program.”

In fact, the Chinese government has already unveiled a new pilot program that aims to provide every rural baby living in poverty with a free daily nutrient packet. But instead of delivering the packets directly to households, families have to travel several hours to the local county seat to pick up their packets. To date, the pilot has been rolled out in about 350 poor rural counties, with another 300 scheduled for 2014. But the government pilot doesn’t include any baseline research, and thus lacks important data on the health impacts and cost-effectiveness of this type of nutritional intervention.

The scant data available suggests that only a small share of eligible families are actually making the effort to pick up their packets. This is the gap REAP is looking to fill with its studies. Rozelle hopes that REAP’s new data on baby nutrition will help shape the government’s pilot program as it grows.

REAP has a long history of pioneering research and impacting national policy around rural education and health in China. Between 2008 and 2012, REAP surveyed 60,000 rural Chinese school-aged children and found that 30 percent were anemic. That study helped influence the government’s decision to launch a ten-year, nationwide school lunch program funded at more than $20 billion.

“The Chinese government has identified early childhood nutrition as a key policy priority in the coming years,” Rozelle says. “However, we believe they will need help figuring out the best way to implement their policy ideas. This is where REAP can help, by providing evidence-based solutions.”

Updates about the Nourishing the Future program, along with results of the baseline survey, are available on REAP’s website.

 


Laura Seaman is the Communications and External Relations Manager at Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment. She can be reached at lseaman@stanford.edu

 Research contact: Alexis Medina: amedina5@stanford.edu

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Has the global food price bubble  burst, and if so, does it matter? In the first installment of FSE's new Food and Nutrition Policy Symposium Series, Professor Thomas Hertel of Purdue University and Professor Johann Swinnen of Leuven University outlined global trends in the cost of food, and explained how a drop in prices after the food price shocks of 2007-2008 might affect global politics and economics.

What drives food prices?

As population growth and rising incomes put pressure on the global food supply, many scholars consider high food costs to be the "new normal," especially following the food price shocks of 2007-2008. Professor Thomas Hertel challenged this view, saying that "To look forward 45 years, you have to look back 45 years" at what factors actually impact food prices.

Prices for many food commodities fell between 1961 and 2006, despite strong population and income growth, because the world was able to triple crop production during the same period. Since the recent price spikes, the "food price bubble" seems to have burst, with prices falling steadily since 2009.

Although population will continue to grow over the next several decades, the rate of growth is slowing worldwide and is mostly concentrated in developing countries, where per capita purchasing power is relatively low. This minimizes the pressure that population growth puts on the global food supply.

Economic factors may be more influential. "For the first time in history," Hertel said, "income will surpass population as a driver of global food demand." As countries move up the income scale, they consume richer diets of input-intensive products like meat, dairy and processed foods.

Energy prices also influence global food costs. As oil and gas prices rise, demand grows for alternative fuels like ethanol. Half of the increase in corn production over the past several decades came from the growing demand for ethanol, which was fueled by government mandates and which drove up the global price of corn. These mandates have been rolled back in recent years, however, and demand growth for biofuels has waned.

Hertel added that issues around climate change, urbanization, water supply, food waste and deforestation may also impact global food prices in the future.

Many scholars point to crop yields as a way to close the gap between food supply and demand and keep prices low. But Hertel cautioned that scientists and policymakers may be constrained by technical and economic limits.

To further increase yields "is a bigger job than simply doing some more science in the lab," Hertel said. But he noted with optimism that new investments in research and development have risen sharply from both the public and private sector, particularly in countries like China, India and Brazil where food security is a pressing issue. 

Impacts of the food price bubble

Professor Johann Swinnen explained that if the food price bubble has in fact burst, the next several years are likely to bring a shift in the politics and economics of global food issues.

The recent bubble coincided with an increase in both policy attention and donor funding to combat food insecurity - a focus that has benefitted both farmers and consumers, but that could wane as prices fall.

While the high prices of 2007-2008 benefited farmers, they in turn hurt low-income consumers in urban areas. And because people in high-density areas find it easier to organize and voice their concerns over government policies, they are more likely to capture media attention.

This "urban bias," as Swinnen described it, influenced policymakers to respond to the heavy media coverage. His team found that after 2007, agricultural funding from the World Bank, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) all rose sharply. The percentage of global development aid targeted toward agriculture also grew.

Swinnen described the social and political conditions of 2007-2008 as a "perfect storm" that shifted the attention of policymakers toward global food security investments. Paradoxically, Swinnen explained, this policy response to urban unrest over food prices ultimately benefitted both rural and urban populations, by boosting agricultural investments for food producers while also helping lower costs for consumers.

 The Food and Nutrition Policy Symposium Series will run for three years and will consist of a total of ten lectures spanning a wide range of issues around global food and nutrition policy. It is funded by Zachary Nelson, '84 and Elizabeth Horn. The series follows on the successful two-year Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series which concluded in May 2013 and was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Corn yields in the central United States have become more sensitive to drought conditions in the past two decades, according to a new study in the journal Science from a team led FSE associate director David Lobell.

"The Corn Belt is phenomenally productive," Lobell said, referring to the region of Midwestern states where much of the country's corn is grown. "But in the past two decades we saw very small yield gains in non-irrigated corn under the hottest conditions. This suggests farmers may be pushing the limits of what's possible under these conditions."

He predicted that at current levels of temperature sensitivity, crops could lose 15 percent of their yield within 50 years, or as much as 30 percent if crops continue the trend of becoming more sensitive over time.

As Lobell explained, the quest to maximize crop yields has been a driving force behind agricultural research as the world's population grows and climate change puts pressure on global food production. One big challenge for climate science is whether crops can adapt to climate change by becoming less sensitive to hotter and drier weather.

"The data clearly indicate that drought stress for corn and soy comes partly from low rain, but even more so from hot and dry air. Plants have to trade water to get carbon from the air to grow, and the terms of that trade become much less favorable when it's hot," said Lobell, also the lead author for a chapter in the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, which details a consensus view on the current state and fate of the world's climate.

Rain, temperature, humidity

The United States produces 40 percent of the world's corn, mostly in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. As more than 80 percent of U.S. agricultural land relies on natural rainfall rather than irrigation, corn farmers in these regions depend on precipitation, air temperature and humidity for optimal plant growth.

According to the research, over the last few decades, corn in the United States has been modified with new traits, like more effective roots that better access water and built-in pest resistance to protect against soil insects. These traits allow farmers to plant seeds closer together in a field, and have helped farmers steadily raise yields in typical years.

But in drought conditions, densely planted corn can suffer higher stress and produce lower yields. In contrast, soybeans have not been planted more densely in recent decades and show no signs of increased sensitivity to drought, the report noted.

Drought conditions are expected to become even more challenging as temperatures continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the researchers said.

Lobell said, "Recent yield progress is overall a good news story. But because farm yields are improving fastest in favorable weather, the stakes for having such weather are rising. In other words, the negative impacts of hot and dry weather are rising at the same time that climate change is expected to bring more such weather."

Extensive data

Lobell's team examined an unprecedented amount of detailed field data from more than 1 million USDA crop insurance records between 1995 and 2012.

"The idea was pretty simple," he said. "We determined which conditions really matter for corn and soy yields, and then tracked how farmers were doing at different levels of these conditions over time. But to do that well, you really need a lot of data, and this dataset was a beauty."

Lobell said he hopes that the research can help inform researchers and policymakers so they can make better decisions.

"I think it's exciting that data like this now exist to see what's actually happening in fields. By taking advantage of this data, we can learn a lot fairly quickly," he said. "Of course, our hope is to improve the situation. But these results challenge the idea that U.S. agriculture will just easily adapt to climate changes because we invest a lot and are really high-tech."

Lobell and colleagues are also looking at ways crops may perform better under increasingly hot conditions. "But I wouldn't expect any miracles," he said. "It will take targeted efforts, and even then gains could be modest. There's only so much a plant can do when it is hot and dry."

This animation shows the increasing sensitivity of U.S. corn to drought over time. Animation by Carlo Di Bonito.

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Abstract:

Latitudes above 45°N have been characterized by rates of warming faster than the global average since 1980. However, the effects of this warming on crop production at these latitudes are still unclear. Using 30-years of weather and crop management data in Heilongjiang area of China (43.4° to 53.4°N), combined with the Hybrid-Maize model, we show that maize yields would have stagnated in most areas and decreased in the southern part of Heilongjiang if varieties were assumed fixed since 1980. However, we show that through farmers’ adaptation, warming has benefitted maize production for much of this region. Specifically, farmers gradually chose longer maturing varieties, resulting in a net 7–17 % yield increase per decade. Meanwhile, farmers also rapidly expanded maize area (from 1.88 million ha in 1980 to 4.01 million ha in 2009) and the northward limit of maize area shifted by more than 290 km from ~50.8°N to ~53.4°N. Overall, benefits from warming represented 35 % of the overall yield gains in the region over this period. The results indicate substantial ongoing adaptations and benefits at north high-latitudes, although they still represent a small fraction of global maize area. The sustainability of crop area expansion in these regions remains unclear and deserves further study.
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FSE’s David Lobell finds that an increase of more than two degrees Celsius in average global temperature is likely to cause yields of wheat, rice and maize to fall throughout the 21st century. Early adaptation could increase projected yields by up to 15 percent.

If global temperatures continue to rise, the amount of crops farmers can harvest will sharply decline during the next 100 years.

Stanford professor David Lobell and an international team of climate scientists modeled future crop yields under several global climate scenarios throughout the 21st century. They found that if average global temperatures rise by more than two degrees Celsius, farmers are likely to get less wheat, rice and maize out of each plot of land. Yields are expected to fall by an average of 4.9 percent for every one degree Celsius rise in average temperature. Year-to-year variability of harvests is also expected to rise, as drought and flooding become more frequent. Crop yield losses will speed up throughout the century, with declines in yield beginning around 2030 and with the fastest drop happening in the second half of the century.

Lobell, an associate professor of Environmental Earth System Science and the associate director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford, reviewed over 1,700 published studies with a team of climate scientists from the United States, United Kingdom and Australia. The team found that if farmers adapt to climate change within the next few years, they have a better chance of avoiding or even reversing the predicted decline of wheat and rice yields in some regions. Agricultural adaptation strategies like irrigating fields and developing new crop breeds could increase projected yields between 7 percent and 15 percent.

The new study also highlights the need for better data on the potential future impacts of other factors that affect crop yields, like the prevalence of pests and plant diseases, and the availability of water supply. A full version of the study can be found online at Nature Climate Change.

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Eyeglasses boosted the standardized test scores of rural Chinese schoolchildren as much as 18 percent in just six months, according to a large-scale, ongoing study led by Stanford researchers.

"The evidence is overwhelming," said Scott Rozelle, co-director of the Rural Education Action Program (REAP), a coalition of Chinese universities and Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies that works to improve education and health in rural China.

The initial test scores for nearsighted students hovered around 68 percent. After receiving glasses, average scores soared to 86 percent. "You do these simple interventions and a child's whole life changes," Rozelle said. "It's fantastic."

REAP scholars partnered with Chinese ophthalmologists and scores of graduate students to orchestrate the massive project, the first to examine vision problems in rural China.

In 2012 and 2013, the team screened the vision of approximately 20,000 fourth and fifth graders in rural Shaanxi and Gansu provinces and doled out more than 4,000 pairs of eyeglasses. They discovered that 25 percent of the students were nearsighted, but only one in seven of those nearsighted students had the glasses they needed.

"There's a huge amount of unmet need," said Matthew Boswell, a REAP project manager based at Stanford.

The results may seem intuitive. Yet, helping the millions of nearsighted children in rural China is anything but easy, the REAP team discovered. Few of these rural children (and adults) know they are nearsighted – the world, to them, is naturally blurry. In addition, eye doctors are concentrated in the populous coastal corridors or regional "county towns," often dozens of miles by bus from the homes of rural Chinese families, Boswell said.

Basic eyeglasses cost between 200 and 500 yuan ($30 to $80), a price out of reach for many, he said.

The researchers also struggled to counter pervasive superstitions about eyeglasses.

For example, many rural Chinese residents believe that glasses make children's' vision deteriorate, relying on the observation that vision generally worsens with age, Boswell said. In addition, many Chinese do "eye exercises" by rubbing their eyes, cheeks and temples each morning, a practice they believe improves vision, he said.

They also face political struggles: China's rural health care program doesn't pay for vision care. "We could tell health or education officials until we were blue in the face there was a high level of need for vision care in rural communities," Boswell said. "But if your findings are not attached to something they care about, it's hard to make them listen."

Hence the connection to the test scores, a highly valued measurement by Chinese policymakers. The REAP team taps its large network of Chinese academic collaborators to translate its research results into policy reform, a process that is often successful, Rozelle said.

REAP is currently analyzing alternative ways to boost the delivery and acceptance of eye care, Boswell said. The original study assigned nearsighted students into six groups.  Researchers gave one-third of the students glasses; one-third received a voucher to purchase glasses; and another third remained untreated. Then, half of the students in each group received training about the causes and treatments for vision problems.

The training failed to significantly affect whether students wore the glasses, Boswell said.  The students who had to invest time to acquire glasses using a voucher demonstrated similar usage rates as students who received free glasses, he said.

Among a variety of other initiatives currently underway, the REAP team is training Chinese teachers to conduct simple vision tests, Boswell said.

"It's an extreme feel–good example," Rozelle said. "You put the first pair of glasses on a kid … and then a huge smile lights up their face."

Becky Bach is a writer for the Stanford News Service.

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Frontiers in Food Policy: Perspectives on sub-Saharan Africa is a compilation of research stemming from the Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The series, and this volume, have brought the world's leading policy experts in the fields of food and agricultural development together for a comprehensive dialogue on pro-poor growth and food security policy. Participants and contributing authors have addressed the major themes of hunger and rural poverty, agricultural productivity, resource and climate constraints on agriculture, and food and agriculture policy, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa.

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China dominates the global aquaculture industry, most clearly with its massive production and consumption of low trophic-level carp species and its rapidly rising output and exports of tilapia. Although these fish do not require a high percentage of fishmeal in their diets, their large production volumes contribute to China's leading role in global fishmeal consumption. The magnitude of China's dependence on fishmeal supplies – and hence the pressure it places on wild forage fisheries – remains a contentious issue. In this study, we use primary survey data from three provinces in China to examine the current use of aquafeeds in the carp and tilapia sectors and to assess how future demand for fishmeal will likely be affected by the country's shifting patterns of seafood consumption and production. Our results indicate that virtually all carp and tilapia farmers in our survey regions use manufactured feeds containing fishmeal and that median feed conversion ratios (FCRs) are in the range of 1.4 to 1.9. Feeds are poorly targeted on many farms due to widespread polyculture practices, especially the integration of higher-value species into carp ponds to improve farm-level profitability. Our study also suggests that government statistics underestimate household demand for fish by 20–35% because they do not account for out-of-home consumption. As China's demand for fish continues to rise in the future with per capita incomes and urbanization, the co-culture of high-valued species and the use of aquaculture feeds containing fishmeal are also expected to expand.

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David Lobell, an associate professor of environmental Earth system science and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, has been named a 2013 MacArthur Fellow and one of Foreign Policy Magazine's 100 Leading Global Thinkers of 2013.

MacArthur "Genius Grant"

Lobell, who is also the associate director of FSI’s Center on Food Security and the Environment, was cited "for unearthing richly informative, but often underutilized sources of data to investigate the impact of climate change on crop production and global food security." He received his doctorate degree from Stanford in 2005 and was appointed to the faculty in 2009.

A pioneer of the emerging field of crop informatics, Lobell is revolutionizing the understanding of the environmental factors controlling crop yields, with a particular emphasis on adaptation to climate change.

His work provides decision makers, for the first time, with critical information about how to adapt agricultural development to climate change.

"I was completely surprised by this recognition, but am really excited by the opportunity it presents," said Lobell, who is also a senior fellow at Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. "To have the MacArthur Foundation recognize the value of taking new approaches and the importance of the topics of hunger and food production is deeply gratifying."

Lobell's research focuses on identifying opportunities to increase yields of crops including wheat and corn in major agricultural regions, with projects currently underway in Africa, South Asia, Mexico and the United States. 

"I'm interested in how to feed the world and protect the environment at the same time," he said. "While there are many theories about how to do that, my work tries to test these theories, often using data that were collected for completely different reasons."

The citation emphasized Lobell's work on understanding the risks of climate change, and options for adaptation. "Climate change is one of the reasons for concern about feeding people in the future, but it's not insurmountable if good decisions are made," he said. 

When asked how he would use the funding, Lobell said he would not rush the decision. He said that some of the award would likely relieve him of writing grant proposals. In addition, he said he would consider using some toward more travel.

"A lot of my better ideas in the past have started with travel and interactions with international collaborations," he said.  "And there's always a tradeoff between my work travel and family.  I now might take my wife and young sons with me on some extended trips."

Foreign Policy's Leading Global Thinkers

In December, Foreign Policy named Lobell one of the 100 Leading Global Thinkers of 2013. The recognition comes for his work "helping farmers feed the world" in a changing climate. Lobell is joined on the magazine's list by fellow researchers working on climate issues, along with prominent public figures like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, and Pope Francis.

Widely sought throughout the world to provide expert advice, Lobell is a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report chapter on food security, to be published in 2014. The IPCC, which won the Nobel Prize in 2007, also made Foreign Policy's 2013 Leading Global Thinkers list alongside Lobell, "for showing that humanity is on the brink of catastrophe" if climate change is not addressed quickly and aggressively.

Lobell studied applied mathematics at Brown University, and before receiving his bachelor's degree in 2000, he spent the summer of 1999 as a research intern at Stanford, developing remote sensing algorithms. He then pursued graduate studies at Stanford, receiving his doctorate in geological and environmental sciences in 2005.

He was a postdoctoral fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory from 2005-2007, and returned to Stanford as a senior research scholar in the Program on Food Security and the Environment in 2008-2009.  He accepted an appointment as assistant professor in the Stanford School of Earth Sciences in 2009. 

In addition to his research, Lobell teaches several courses open to both undergraduates and graduate students, including "Feeding Nine Billion," "Climate and Agriculture," and "Global Land Use to 2050," as well as modeling and statistical methods classes.

Lobell received a NASA New Investigator Program Award for 2008-2011. He received the James B. Macelwane Medal from the American Geophysical Union in 2010, awarded for significant contributions to the geophysical sciences by an outstanding scientist under the age of 36.

Nancy Peterson is the chief communications officer for Stanford's School of Earth Sciences. Laura Seaman, communications manager for the Center on Food Security and the Environment, contributed to this article.

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Ling_Cao.jpg PhD

Ling Cao completed her Ph.D. in Natural Resources and Environment at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Trained as an agronomist and environmental scientist, she has focused on interdisciplinary research at the interface between the sustainability of food and natural systems. Her dissertation research quantitatively assessed the sustainability of emerging shrimp farming systems and technologies, and in particular focused on applying these results to producers and consumers in China and US. In early 2018, Cao was selected as a recipient of the “National Thousand Talents Program for Distinguished Young Scholars,” an initiative of the Chinese government to attract high-level talent from overseas to work full-time in China. In addition, she was also selected as a fellow of the “Shanghai Thousand Talents Program” which aims to recruit top-talent who are leaders in their fields to help enhance Shanghai's future development and sustainable competitiveness. Cao currently works as an associate professor in the Institute of Oceanography at Shanghai Jiao Tung University and continues to work with Roz Naylor and colleagues on fisheries and aquaculture research.

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