Security

FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.

Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions. 

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In this article, we examine why concerns about food security have diminished, at least relative to earlier periods. We argue that it should be in the interest of agricultural economists to return this concept to the G-8 agenda in light of the clear linkages between agricultural development, economic growth, food security, and national security in poor countries. We are particularly concerned that issues of hunger not get lost in a world food economy that is now driven predominately by animal product demand, super markets, and subsidies, and that is increasingly constrained by natural resources and their (mis)management.

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Journal Articles
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American Journal of Agricultural Economics
Authors
Walter P. Falcon
Rosamond L. Naylor
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Global meat production is becoming increasingly industrialized, spatially concentrated, and geographically detached from the agricultural land base. This Policy Forum reviews the process of livestock industrialization and globalization, and its consequences for water, nitrogen, and species-rich habitats in meat- and feed-producing regions often vastly separated in space. It argues that pricing and other policy mechanisms which reflect social costs of resource use and ecological change are needed to re-couple livestock and land in producer countries, drawing on examples from Europe and the United States. It also argues that consumers can play an important role in setting a sustainable course.

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Science
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Rosamond L. Naylor
Henning Steinfeld
Walter P. Falcon
Authors
Walter P. Falcon
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News
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The film "Silent Killer: The Unfinished Campaign Against Hunger," hosted by NPR's Scott Simon, offers a compelling examination of both the problem and solutions surrounding world hunger. The program aired on PBS station KQED/San Francisco on Wednesday, November 2nd at 11:00 p.m.

SEATTLE - There are a billion hungry people in the world. Fifteen thousand children-the equivalent of five times the victims of the World Trade Center bombings-die each day of hunger. Yet it doesn't have to be this way. We can end hunger-if we make a commitment to doing so. The new one-hour documentary Silent Killer: The Unfinished Campaign Against Hunger shows how it can be done. Shot on location in the United States, South Africa, Kenya, Rome, Mexico and Brazil, Silent Killer examines both the problem of hunger and solutions. The documentary and its companion Web site (www.SilentKillerFilm.org) will provide viewers with inspiration and information to become part of the effort to end hunger.

Produced by Hana Jindrova and John de Graaf (Affluenza, Escape from Affluenza), in association with KCTS/Seattle Public Television, Silent Killer will air on several California public television stations as follows:

KTEH/ San Jose: Sunday, October 16 at 5:00 p.m. (please confirm).

KOCE/ Huntington Beach: Sunday, October 23 at 4:00 p.m.

KQED/ San Francisco: Wednesday, November 2 at 11:00 p.m., repeating on

KQED Encore (Digital Channel 189), Thursday, November 3 at 10:00 p.m.

KVCR/ San Bernardino: Thanksgiving evening, Thursday, November 24 at 8 p.m.

KVIE/ Sacramento: Airdate and time to be announced.

KCSM/ San Mateo: Airdate and time to be announced.

(For all other stations, please check local listings).

Narrated by National Public Radio's Scott Simon, the film begins in South Africa's Kalahari Desert, where razor-thin Bushmen use the Hoodia cactus to fend off hunger. But now, a drug firm has patented the Hoodia's appetite-suppressant properties and is using it to make a diet product for obese Americans and Europeans. Hoodia is a metaphor for a world where some people die from too much food, but millions more die from too little.

We discover how serious the problem is in Kenya as we meet Jane Ininda, a scientist who is trying to make agriculture more productive in her country, while her own brother, Salesio, barely survives the drought, poor soils and pests that constantly threaten his crops. Through powerful stories, we come to understand the dimensions of the hunger crisis.

At the World Food Summit in Rome, we learn how activists have been working to end hunger since President John Kennedy declared war on it in 1963. But today, America's commitment to food security is less clear. In fact, world financial commitments to hunger research are now in decline.

But Silent Killer does not leave viewers feeling helpless. A visit to Brazil finds a nation energized by a new campaign called FOME ZERO-Zero Hunger. In the huge city of Belo Horizonte, we meet a remarkable leader and see how, under the programs she supervises, the right to food is guaranteed to all. In the countryside, we are introduced to the Landless Peasants' Movement, which is giving hope to millions of hungry Brazilians.

Can we end hunger, or will it always be with us? Why should we try? What will it take? What are we doing now? Can biotechnology play a role, and if so, how? Is hunger just a problem of distribution, or do we still need to produce more and better crops? These are the questions considered in this exquisitely photographed documentary.

EXPERTS featured in Silent Killer: The Unfinished Campaign Against Hunger and available for press interviews include:

David Beckmann - President, Bread for the World. Since 1991, Reverend David Beckmann has served as president of Bread for the World, a Christian group that lobbies the U.S. government for policy changes to end hunger in the United States and around the world.

Per Pinstrup-Andersen - World Food Prize Laureate 2001. A native of Denmark, Per Pinstrup-Andersen is the H.E. Babcock Professor of Food, Nutrition and Public Policy at Cornell University. He also serves as the chairman of the Science Council of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research.

Chris Barrett - Development Economist, Cornell University. Dr. Barrett is a professor of applied economics and management at Cornell University. His focus is on rural communities, primarily in Africa, concentrating on the dynamics of poverty, food security and hunger.

Walter Falcon - Development Economist, Stanford University. Dr. Falcon is the Farnsworth Professor of International Agricultural Policy at Stanford University (emeritus), co-director of the Center for Environmental Science and Policy, and former director of the Stanford Institute for International Studies.

PROGRAM TIE-INS: October 16 is the 25th observance of World Food Day-a worldwide event designed to create awareness, understanding and year-round action to alleviate hunger. (See www.worldfooddayusa.org.) In addition, October 24 is the 60th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations and its first agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

CREDITS: Silent Killer was produced by Hana Jindrova and John de Graaf in association with KCTS/Seattle Public Television and is narrated by NPR's Scott Simon. Writer: John de Graaf. Photographers/Editors: Diana Wilmar and David Fox. Composer: Michael Bade. Executive Producer: Enrique Cerna, KCTS. Funding was provided by The Rockefeller Foundation.

DISTRIBUTOR: Silent Killer is presented nationally by KCTS/Seattle Public Television and is distributed by the National Educational Telecommunications Association (NETA).

WEB SITE: See www.SilentKillerFilm.org for more information about the film, including a full transcript, in-depth interviews with film characters and experts on hunger, a guide for teachers, a list of hunger facts and myths, a detailed "Take Action" section and additional resources. Color images from the film are posted on the site for press use, along with an online press kit.

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FSI (Visiting Scholar), Director for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) East Africa Program
MS, PhD

Were is 'returning to the Farm' having completed his Masters here in International Development Policy, a PhD in Agricultural Economics, and a post-doctoral fellowship at the Food Research Institute.

He is currently a Senior Research Fellow and Program Leader for Agricultural Science and Technology Policy at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington, DC. He is leading a newly created global research program focused on agricultural science and technology policy in developing countries. He is also the Coordinator for IFPRI's Eastern Africa Food Policy Network covering Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi, and Mozambique. His experience will be greatly appreciated as CESP expands its work in the area of food security and the environment.

In addition to his professional fellowships and consulting experience, Were is also a novelist. Publishing such books as The Men Do Not Eat Wings - A Novel and Private Solutions: A Tale of Political Awakenings and Coming-of-Age in Africa. We look forward to passing his books around the office.

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The combined forces of El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) eventsand global warming are likely to have dramatic effects on future cropproduction and food security in Indonesia and other tropical countries.Indonesia consistently experiences dry climatic conditions and droughtsduring El Nino events, resulting in delayed production of rice—thecountry’s primary food staple—and exacerbated problems of foodinsecurity among the poor. Our preliminary analysis suggests thatglobal climate change could cause Indonesia’s “normal” climate state tobe similar to an El Nino state currently. Unfortunately, globalclimate models (GCMs) link poorly to regional hydrologic conditions in thetropics, and have limited coverage of the Indonesian archipelago, excludingareas representing 75% of the population and 66% of the riceproduction (Figure 1). Therefore results from the GCM need to befurther “downscaled” to understand the effects of global climate changeon Indonesian hydrology and agriculture.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
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Authors
Rosamond L. Naylor
Walter P. Falcon

The global trade in grain and meat between nations is extensive and is projected to grow considerably in the short term. The concept and quantification of "virtual water" involved in these trade exchanges has led to new insights of the larger consequences of global transfers in commodities. FSE will host a small international team of scholars, including economists, ecologists, and livestock specialists to scope out this issue and to expand this concept to include energy and nutrients. By documenting trends, developing scenarios for the future, the group is proposing ways to achieve desired outcomes in a way that is sustainable for the life systems needed to fuel industrial livestock systems.

Richard and Rhoda Goldman Conference Room

Conferences
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Improved understanding of the factors that limit crop yields in farmers' fields will play an important role in increasing regional food production while minimizing environmental impacts. However, causes of spatial variability in crop yields are poorly known in many regions because of limited data availability and analysis methods. In this study, we assessed sources of between-field wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield variability for two growing seasons in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Field surveys conducted in 2001 and 2003 provided data on management practices for 68 and 80 wheat fields throughout the Valley, respectively, while yields on these fields were estimated using concurrent Landsat satellite imagery. Management-yield relationships were analyzed with t tests, linear regression, and regression trees, all of which revealed significant but year-dependent impacts of management on yields. In 2001, an unusually cool year that favored high yields, N fertilizer was the most important source of between-field variability. In 2003, a warmer year with reduced irrigation water allocations, the timing of the first postplanting irrigation was found to be the most important control. Management explained at least 50% of spatial yield variability in both years. Regression tree models, which were able to capture important nonlinearities and interactions, were more appropriate for analyzing yield controls than traditional linear models. The results of this study indicate that adjustments in management can significantly improve wheat production in the Yaqui Valley but that the relevant controls change from year to year.

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Publication Type
Journal Articles
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Agronomy Journal
Authors
David Lobell
Gregory P. Asner
Rosamond L. Naylor
Walter P. Falcon
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El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice. Of the inter-annual production changes due to SSTA variation, 90% occur within 12 provinces, notably Java and South Sulawesi. New data and models offer opportunities to understand the agricultural effects of ENSO events, to reach early consensus on coming ENSO effects, and to use forecasting to improve agencies' and individuals' capacity to mitigate climate effects on food security. We propose that Indonesia hold an "ENSO summit" each September to analyse the food-security implications of upcoming climate events.

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Journal Articles
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Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies
Authors
Walter P. Falcon
Rosamond L. Naylor
Whitney L. Smith
Marshall Burke

Meat production is projected to double by 2020 due to increased incomes, population growth, and rising per capita global consumption of meat. In order to meet this demand, industrialized animal production systems are proliferating and grain production for feed is expanding. These trends will have major consequences on the global environment-affecting the quality of the atmosphere, water, and soil due to nutrient overloads; impacting marine fisheries both locally and globally through fish meal use; and threatening human health, as, for example, through excessive use of antibiotics.

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