It is a large country with a volatile, multi-ethnic population, held together for decades by authoritarian rule and a strong military. The collapse of this regime provides an opportunity for more open and participatory politics. However, civil unrest, a leadership vacuum and weak political institutions threaten the country's stability and cohesion.

This paper is the result of a project undertaken in the Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, at the invitation of and with support from the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. Donald Kennedy (Center for Environmental Science and Policy) and David Holloway (Center for International Security and Arms Control) were codirectors of the project. Erika Weinthal served as research associate. Walter Falcon, Paul Ehrlich, Roz Naylor, Michael May, Steven Schneider, Stephen Fetter, and Jor-San Choi participated in sessions during which the issues were discussed, drafts developed and criticized, and conclusions reached. The report was written by Donald Kennedy and reviewed by the other collaborators. The team acknowledges with thanks the assistance provided by Jason Robinson, Max Edleson, Elissa Hirsch, and Connie Nelson; the advice provided by the Carnegie Commission staff, especially Jane Holl and Tom Leney; the enthusiastic support of David A. Hamburg; and the helpful contributions of several anonymous reviewers.

GIS analysis was made possible by support for the Center for Conservation Biology gis laboratory from Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. Gifts from Peter Bing, Robert Haas, and Jacob Voogd have helped support this and other projects of the Center for Environmental Science and Policy.

Rapid expansion of employment in low-income countries is one of the biggest challenges of development. The growth in labor supply in developing countries will remain large for a long time to come. Incomes of the poor in rural areas will depend more and more on productive off-farm work, and in the rapidly expanding urban areas, food security will depend largely on jobs and wage rates.