El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have a dominate influence on rice output and markets in Southeast Asia. This paper measures ENSO effects on rice production in Indonesia-nationally and regionally-and on world rice prices using the August sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) as the primary gauge of climate variability. Our estimates show that for each degree (C) change in the August SSTA, there is a 1,318 thousand metric ton effect on paddy production in Indonesia and a $23/metric ton change in the world rice price. Ninety percent of the inter-annual changes in paddy production caused by SSTA variations take place within twelve provinces, with Java and South Sulewesi bearing by far the greatest impact. New data and models now combine to provide Indonesia with opportunities for understanding the effects of ENSO events on agriculture, for forming an early consensus on likely ENSO effects for the coming year, and for using forecasts in ways that permit agencies and individuals to do a more credible job of mitigating negative climate effects on food security. Among other suggestions, we propose that an "ENSO Summit" be held each year, sometime between September 15-30, to analyze the likely food-security implications arising from upcoming climate events.

Many locals in British Columbia's Broughton Archipelago welcomed the salmon-farming industry in the early 1980s. It promised jobs, more schools, and higher incomes. It was not until some regular pods of killer whales stopped returning - and later, when some wild salmon populations became diseased - that the locals became concerned.

In Alaska, coastal ecosystems were protected from these impacts by a statewide ban on finfish farming in 1989. However, when the price of their commercial salmon catch plummeted in the mid-1990s, Alaskans became worried. Throughout the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, people now see the close connection between salmon farming, the environment, and international markets. As the global aquaculture industry continues to expand, what impacts will it have on local ecosystems and fishing economies?

The vulnerability framework of the Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program explicitly recognizes the coupled human-environment system and accounts for interactions in the coupling affecting the system's responses to hazards and its vulnerability. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the vulnerability framework through three case studies: the tropical southern Yucatan, the arid Yaqui Valley of northwest Mexico, and the pan-Arctic. Together, these examples illustrate the role of external forces in reshaping the systems in question and their vulnerability to environmental hazards, as well as the different capacities of stakeholders, based on their access to social and biophysical capital, to respond to the changes and hazards. The framework proves useful in directing attention to the interacting parts of the coupled system and helps identify gaps in information and understanding relevant to reducing vulnerability in the systems as a whole.

Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underday, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) along but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented.

The sources and distribution of anthropogenic nitrogen (N), including N fertilization and N fixed during fossil-fuel combustion, are rapidly becoming globally distributed. Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to anthropogenic N inputs are likely to vary geographically. In the temperate zone, long-term N inputs can lead to increases in plant growth and also can result in over-enrichment with N, eventually leading to increased losses of N via solution leaching and trace-gas emissions, and in some cases, to changes in species composition and to ecosystem decline. However, not all ecosystems respond to N deposition similarly; their response depends on factors such as successional state, ecosystem type, N demand or retention capacity, land-use history, soils, topography, climate, and the rate, timing, and type of N deposition. We point to some of the conditions under which anthropogenic impacts can be significant, some of the factors that control variations in response, and some areas where uncertainty is large due to limited information.

Despite the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Nino years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Nino years than La Nina years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1 C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.

A doubling in global food demand projected for the next 50 years poses huge challenges for the sustainability both of food production and of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the services they provide to society. Agriculturalists are the principal managers of global useable lands and will shape, perhaps irreversibly, the surface of the Earth in the coming decades. New incentives and policies for ensuring the sustainability of agriculture and ecosystem services will be crucial if we are to meet the demands of improving yields without compromising environmental integrity or public health.