The Center on Food Security and the Environment is a joint effort of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.
The increasing availability of high resolution geocoded data on key outcomes (e.g. incomes) and potential drivers of these outcomes (e.g.
The Global Development and Poverty Initiative (GDP) seminar series returns with a reprise of its most popular seminar last year. Join us for a stimulating discussion on the opportunities, obstacles, and unforeseen events encountered while conducting field research in the developing world.
The panelists will share stories of challenges and successes from their own experiences and will offer insights on conducting effective research in the field.
Read more about last year's seminar here.
This seminar is located in the Knight Management Center's Class of 1968 Building. Click Here for a map.
Encina Commons, Room 102,
615 Crothers Way,
Stanford, CA 94305-6019
My academic focus is on global health, health policy, infectious diseases, environmental changes, and population health. Our research primarily addresses how health policies and environmental changes affect health outcomes worldwide, with a special emphasis on population living in impoverished conditions.
Our recent publications in journals like Nature, Lancet, and JAMA Pediatrics include studies on the impact of tropical cyclones on population health and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity in children. These works are part of my broader effort to understand the health consequences of environmental and policy changes.
Collaborating with trainees and leading academics in global health, our group's research interests also involve analyzing the relationship between health aid policies and their effects on child health and family planning in sub-Saharan Africa. My research typically aims to inform policy decisions and deepen the understanding of complex health dynamics.
Current projects focus on the health and social effects of pollution and natural hazards, as well as the extended implications of war on health, particularly among children and women.
Specific projects we have ongoing include:
What do global warming and demographic shifts imply for the population exposure to extreme heat and extreme cold events?
What are the implications of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) on delivery of basic health services such as vaccinations in low-income contexts?
What effect do malaria control programs have on child mortality?
What is the evidence that foreign aid for health is good diplomacy?
How can we compare health inequalities across countries? Is health in the U.S. uniquely unequal?
Encina Hall East, E404
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. Previously, Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis and an assistant professor in Stanford’s Food Research Institute and department of economics. He currently is a member of several organizations, including the American Economics Association, the International Association for Agricultural Economists, and the Association for Asian Studies. Rozelle also serves on the editorial boards of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and the China Economic Review.
His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.
Rozelle's papers have been published in top academic journals, including Science, Nature, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Economic Literature. His book, Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise, was published in 2020 by The University of Chicago Press. He is fluent in Chinese and has established a research program in which he has close working ties with several Chinese collaborators and policymakers. For the past 20 years, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; a co-director of the University of California's Agricultural Issues Center; and a member of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center on Food Security and the Environment.
In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.
Abstract: How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity and the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intra-seasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/year) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.
A research team led by FSE director Rosamond Naylor has won a $400,000 multi-year grant to study how to create sustainable palm oil supply chains that promote economic growth and environmental sustainability in Indonesia and West Africa.
Palm oil has become one of the world’s fastest growing and most valuable agricultural commodities. Global production of palm oil doubled in both volume and area each decade between 1970 and 2010, and is expected to double again by 2025. The windfall profits from this rapid expansion have come at a cost of tropical deforestation, biodiversity loss and rising greenhouse gas emissions, and in many cases the economic benefits have bypassed local smallholder farmers.
Naylor and her team of Stanford faculty, scholars and students will undertake the three-year project with funding from the Stanford Global Development and Poverty Initiative (GDP), launched in Spring 2014. GDP aims to transform Stanford’s capacity to speak to the challenges of poverty and development. This year, GDP awarded more than $2 million to 13 faculty research teams from across the university.
The new project marks the first venture that connects Stanford’s expertise in sustainability with the Graduate School of Business’ experience in value chain innovations. The team will conduct an evaluation of value chain opportunities for sustainable palm oil production, build corporate partnerships to improve smallholder incomes, and engage in policy advising.
GDP is a joint initiative of the Stanford Institute for Innovation in Developing Economies (SEED) and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). SEED is housed within the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
Rosamond Naylor is William Wrigley Professor of Earth System Science and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and at FSI.
We examine how variation in local economic conditions has shaped the AIDS epidemic in Africa. Using data from over 200,000 individuals across 19 countries, we match biomarker data on individuals' serostatus to information on local rainfall shocks, a large source of income variation for rural households. We estimate infection rates in HIV-endemic rural areas increase by 11% for every recent drought, an effect that is statistically and economically significant. Income shocks explain up to 20% of variation in HIV prevalence across African countries, suggesting existing approaches to HIV prevention could be bolstered by helping households manage income risk better.
Bad weather in sub-Saharan Africa increases the spread of HIV, according to a study published in the June 2015 issue of the Economic Journal, co-authored by Stanford professor and FSE fellow Marshall Burke.
When the rains fail, farmers in rural areas often see their incomes fall dramatically and will try to make up for it however they can, including through sex work. Analysing data on more than 200,000 individuals across 19 African countries, the research team finds that by changing sexual behaviour, a year of very low rainfall can increase local infection rates by more than 10%.
The results have important policy implications for fighting the spread of the epidemic, as co-author Erick Gong of Middlebury College notes:
‘Existing approaches to stopping the spread of HIV – such as promoting condom use and the use of anti-retrovirals – remain critically important. But our results suggest that other policy approaches could be very useful too – in particular, approaches that provide safety nets to rural households when the weather turns bad.’
Policies and investments seemingly unrelated to HIV – such as the promotion of rural insurance or household savings schemes, or the development of drought-tolerant crops – might have surprising benefits in slowing the HIV epidemic. Co-author Kelly Jones of the International Food Policy Research Institute says:
‘The HIV/AIDS epidemic remains one of the world’s greatest health challenges, with over a million new infections per year in Africa alone. Our results expand the menu of options for addressing the epidemic, and highlight some surprising options that are not at the forefront of people’s minds.’
The research sheds valuable light on why HIV continues to spread in Africa. Previous studies have documented in limited settings that poor women often alter their sexual behaviour in response to an income shortfall. But until now, there has been little evidence that this response is big enough to affect the trajectory of the HIV epidemic.
To fill this gap, the researchers combined data on the HIV status of thousands of people across sub-Saharan Africa with data on the recent rainfall history in each individual’s location.
Because years of low rainfall can lead to much lower incomes in these locations, particularly in rural areas where people depend more heavily on agriculture for their livelihoods, variation in rainfall provides a way to study how changes in local economic conditions affect infection rates. Co-author Marshall Burke comments:
‘We were surprised by how strong the relationship is between recent rainfall fluctuations and local infection rates. As expected, the relationship is much stronger in rural areas, and particularly for women who report working in agriculture. These are the people who really suffer when the rains fail, and who are forced to turn to more desperate measures to make ends meet.’
Notes for editors: ‘Income Shocks and HIV in Africa’ by Marshall Burke, Erick Gong and Kelly Jones is published in the June 2015 issue of the Economic Journal.
Marshall Burke is an assistant professor of Earth System Science at Stanford University. Erick Gong is an assistant professor of economics at Middlebury College. Kelly Jones is a research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
For further information: contact Marshall Burke on +1-650-736-8571 (email: mburke@stanford.edu); Erick Gong on +1-802-443-5553 (email: egong@middlebury.edu); Kelly Jones on +1-202-862-4641 (email: k.jones@cgiar.org); or Romesh Vaitilingam on +44-7768-661095 (email: romesh@vaitilingam.com; Twitter: @econromesh).
Read a full event summary here.
Agricultural crops are on the front lines of climate change. Can we expect increased food production in the context of global warming? Do our crops come pre-adapted to a climate not seen since the dawn of agriculture, or must we take bold measures to prepare agriculture for climate change? This talk will focus on the role that crop diversity must necessarily play in facilitating the adaptation of agricultural crops to new climates and environments. Genebanks, the “Doomsday Vault” near the North Pole, and possible new roles for plant breeders and farmers will be explored.
Dr. Cary Fowler is perhaps best known as the “father” of the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, which UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has described as an “inspirational symbol of peace and food security for the entire humanity.” Dr. Fowler proposed creation of this Arctic facility to Norway and headed the international committee that developed the plan for its establishment by Norway. The Seed Vault provides ultimate security for more than 850,000 unique crop varieties, the raw material for all future plant breeding and crop improvement efforts. He currently chairs the International Council that oversees its operations.
In 2005 Dr. Fowler was chosen to lead the new Global Crop Diversity Trust, an international organization cosponsored by Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). This position carried international diplomatic status. During his tenure, he built an endowment of $130 million and raised an additional $100 million (including the first major grant given for agriculture by the Gates Foundation) for programs to conserve crop diversity and make it available for plant breeding. The Trust organized a huge global project to rescue 90,000 threatened crop varieties in developing countries – the largest such effort in history - and is now engaged in an effort Dr. Fowler initiated with the Royal Botanic Gardens (Kew) to collect, conserve and pre-breed the wild relatives of 26 major crops. He oversaw development of a global information system to aid plant breeders and researchers find appropriate genetic materials from genebanks around the world. These initiatives at the Crop Trust, positioned the organization as a major path-breaking player in the global effort to adapt crops to climate change.
Prior to leading the Global Crop Diversity Trust, Dr. Fowler was Professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences in Ås Norway. He headed research and the Ph.D. program at the Department of International Environment and Development Studies and was a member of the university committee that allocated research funding to the different departments.
The U.N.’s FAO recruited him in the 1990s to lead the team to produce the UN’s first global assessment of the State of the World’s Plant Genetic Resources. He was personally responsible for drafting and negotiating the first FAO Global Plan of Action on the Conservation and Sustainable Utilization of Plant Genetic Resources, formally adopted by 150 countries in 1996. Following this, Dr. Fowler served as Special Assistant to the Secretary General of the World Food Summit (twice) and represented the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR/World Bank) in negotiations on the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources. He chaired a series of Nordic government sponsored informal meetings of 15 countries to facilitate negotiations for this treaty. And, he represented Norway on the Panel of Experts of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Cary Fowler was born in 1949 and grew up in in Memphis, Tennessee, the son of a judge and a dietician. He studied at Simon Fraser University in Canada where he received a B.A. (honors – first class) degree. He earned his Ph.D. at Uppsala University in Sweden with a thesis on agricultural biodiversity and intellectual property rights. Dr. Fowler has lectured widely, been a visiting scholar at Stanford University and a visiting professor at the University of California – Davis. He is the author or co-author of more than 100 articles and several books including the classic Shattering: Food, Politics and the Loss of Genetic Diversity (University of Arizona Press), Unnatural Selection, Technology, Politics and Plant Evolution (Gordon & Breach Science Publishers) and The State of the World’s Plant Genetic Resources (UN-FAO).
Dr. Fowler currently serves on the boards of Rhodes College, the NY Botanical Garden Corporation, the Lillian Goldman Charitable Trust and Amy Goldman Charitable Trust. He remains associated with the Global Crop Diversity Trust as Special Advisor. He is a former member of the U.S. National Plant Genetic Resources Board (appointed by the Secretary of Agriculture) and former board and executive committee member of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico. He has served as chair of the national Livestock Conservancy. He is the recipient of several awards: Right Livelihood Award, Vavilov Medal, the Heinz Award, Bette Midler’s Wind Beneath My Wings Award, the William Brown Award of the Missouri Botanical Garden and two honorary doctorates. He is one of two foreign elected members of the Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences and is a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
