The combined forces of El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) eventsand global warming are likely to have dramatic effects on future cropproduction and food security in Indonesia and other tropical countries.Indonesia consistently experiences dry climatic conditions and droughtsduring El Nino events, resulting in delayed production of rice—thecountry’s primary food staple—and exacerbated problems of foodinsecurity among the poor. Our preliminary analysis suggests thatglobal climate change could cause Indonesia’s “normal” climate state tobe similar to an El Nino state currently. Unfortunately, globalclimate models (GCMs) link poorly to regional hydrologic conditions in thetropics, and have limited coverage of the Indonesian archipelago, excludingareas representing 75% of the population and 66% of the riceproduction (Figure 1). Therefore results from the GCM need to befurther “downscaled” to understand the effects of global climate changeon Indonesian hydrology and agriculture.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice. Of the inter-annual production changes due to SSTA variation, 90% occur within 12 provinces, notably Java and South Sulawesi. New data and models offer opportunities to understand the agricultural effects of ENSO events, to reach early consensus on coming ENSO effects, and to use forecasting to improve agencies' and individuals' capacity to mitigate climate effects on food security. We propose that Indonesia hold an "ENSO summit" each September to analyse the food-security implications of upcoming climate events.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have a dominate influence on rice output and markets in Southeast Asia. This paper measures ENSO effects on rice production in Indonesia-nationally and regionally-and on world rice prices using the August sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) as the primary gauge of climate variability. Our estimates show that for each degree (C) change in the August SSTA, there is a 1,318 thousand metric ton effect on paddy production in Indonesia and a $23/metric ton change in the world rice price. Ninety percent of the inter-annual changes in paddy production caused by SSTA variations take place within twelve provinces, with Java and South Sulewesi bearing by far the greatest impact. New data and models now combine to provide Indonesia with opportunities for understanding the effects of ENSO events on agriculture, for forming an early consensus on likely ENSO effects for the coming year, and for using forecasts in ways that permit agencies and individuals to do a more credible job of mitigating negative climate effects on food security. Among other suggestions, we propose that an "ENSO Summit" be held each year, sometime between September 15-30, to analyze the likely food-security implications arising from upcoming climate events.

This book includes keynote invited papers from the Third International Crop Science Congress held in Hamburg, Germany, in August 2000. All papers have been prepared within strict editorial guidelines to ensure that the work is a balanced review text that provides an overview of the major issues confronting crop science today and in the future. It represents a suitable advanced textbook for students, as well as offering research workers concise overviews of topics adjacent to their areas of research. Contributors include leading authorities from Europe, North and South America, Africa, Asia and Australia.

Despite the strong signal of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to seasonal rice production and food security in the region have not been well developed or widely used in a policy context. This study successfully measures the connections among sea surface temperature anamolies (SSTAs), rainfall, and rice production in Indonesia during the past three decades. Regression results show particularly strong connections on Java, where 55% of the country's rice is grown. Two-thirds of the interannual variance in rice plantings and 40% of the interannual variance in rice production during the main (wet) season on Java are explained by year-to-year fluctuations in SSTAs measured 4 and 8 months in advance, respectively. These effects are cumulative; during strong El Nino years, production shortfalls in the wet season are not made up later in the crop year. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative predictions of ENSO's effects on rice harvests can provide an additional tool for managing food security in one of the world's most populous and important rice-producing countries.

The Evolving Sphere of Food Security seeks to answer two important questions: How do the priorities and challenges of achieving food security change over time as countries develop economically? And how do the policies used to promote food security in one country affect nutrition, food access, natural resources, and national security in other countries? The volume presents the many faces and facets of food security—their symptoms, their roots, and their possible remedies—through the lens of a multidisciplinary group of scholars. The authors share personal stories of research and policy advising from their field experiences to provide readers with a real-world sense of the opportunities and challenges involved in promoting food security at local to global scales. Their observations from countries around the world demonstrate how food security is tied to security of many other kinds: energy, water, health, climate, the environment, and national security. The book’s main goal is to connect these areas in a way that tells an integrated story about human lives, resource use, and the policy process—a story about global food security.