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  • A new approach to mapping crop yields is presented.
  • Estimates are made within Google's Earth Engine, allowing broad scale application.
  • Field-level estimates are tested against over 29,000 ground-based records.
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Remote Sensing of Environment
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David Lobell
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Short durations of very high spring soil moisture can influence crop yields in many ways, including delaying planting and damaging young crops. The central United States has seen a significant upward trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in the 20th century, potentially leading to more frequent occurrences of saturated or nearly saturated fields during the planting season, yet the impacts of these changes on crop yields are not known. Here we investigate the yield response to excess spring moisture for both maize and soybean in the U.S. states of Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana, and the impacts of historical trends for 1950–2011. We find that simple measures of extreme spring soil moisture, derived from finescale daily moisture data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, lead to significant improvements in statistical models of yields for both crops. Individual counties experience up to 10 % loss in years with extremely wet springs. However, losses due to historical trends in excess spring moisture measures have generally been small, with 1–3 % yield loss over the 62 year study period.

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Climatic Change
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Dan Urban
Wolfram Schlenker
David Lobell
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FSE deputy director David Lobell has been named the William Wrigley Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). Lobell is also an Associate Professor in Earth System Science. 

Lobell's research focuses on identifying opportunities to raise crop yields in major agricultural regions, with a particular emphasis on adaptation to climate change. His current projects span Africa, South Asia, Mexico, and the United States, and involve a range of tools including remote sensing, GIS, and crop and climate models.

"David Lobell's research on climate change and food security is truly global in scope, but his work also crosses academic borders," said FSI director Mike McFaul. "David's appointment as William Wrigley Senior Fellow recognizes his ability to connect the most pressing challenges in international  development with critical questions of environmental sustainability, in a way that generates real solutions on both fronts."

The William Wrigley Senior Fellowship is supported by Mrs. Julie Ann Wrigley, AB '71 (Anthropology) and Ms. Alison Wrigley Rusack, AB '80 (Communication).

"The Wrigley fellowship recognizes the important contributions of our faculty to ensuring a sustainable world and is one family’s remarkable legacy to reshape the future of the environment on which we all depend," said Perry L. McCarty Director Barton "Buzz" Thompson, who co-leads the Stanford Woods Institute with Perry L. McCarty Director Jeffrey Koseff.  "Both David and the first holder of the fellowship, Roz Naylor, are leaders in the effort to provide food security to the planet's growing population, perhaps the most critical challenge the world faces."

"David's work already transcends disciplines and departments through his work with the Center on Food Security and the Environment, a synergistic partnership between Woods and the Freeman Spogli Institute," Koseff added. "The Wrigley fellowship provides important support for this type of collaborative, cross-cutting research at Stanford."

Lobell was a Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Food Security and the Environment from 2008-2009 and a Lawrence Post-doctoral Fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory from 2005-2007. He received a PhD in Geological and Environmental Sciences from Stanford University in 2005, and a Sc.B. in Applied Mathematics, Magna Cum Laude from Brown University in 2000.

 
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FSE director Roz Naylor has been selected to deliver the 6th annual Ned Ames Honorary Lecture at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY on Friday, April 24. Her lecture on "Feeding the World in the 21st Century," is free and open to the public, and a video recording of the event will be available on the Cary Institute's website shortly after the talk.

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Indonesia produces more palm oil and consumes more palm oil per capita than any country in the world. This article examines the processes through which Indonesia has promoted palm-oil consumption and some of the consequences of that promotion. Partial equilibrium modelling shows that Indonesia's remarkable increase in palm-oil consumption since 1985 is not largely attributable to population and income growth. Instead, much of this consumption growth has resulted from substitution away from coconut oil, facilitated by government policies on technology, pricing, distribution, and trade. The switch from coconut oil to palm oil in Indonesia was associated with increased land conversions to agriculture and diminished smallholder competitiveness. Despite lower rates of cooking-oil substitution in the future, simulations suggest that Indonesia's total palm-oil consumption in 2035 will be at least double that of 2010.

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For more information and to register, visit tomkat.stanford.edu/ctd.

Each year Stanford experts from a range of disciplines meet to discuss the interconnections and interactions among humanity's needs for and use of food, energy, water and the effect they have on climate and conflict.  These experts will illustrate and evaluate some of the ways in which decisions in one resource area can lead to trade-offs or co-benefits in others, and discuss opportunities to make decisions that can have positive benefits in one area while avoiding negative or unintended consequences in other areas.  This year, in celebration of our 5th anniversary of Connecting the Dots, we return to the food nexus. 
 

Confirmed Speakers

  • Keynote Speaker: Karen Ross, Secretary of California Department of Food and Agriculture
  • Professor Stacey Bent, TomKat Center for Sustainable Energy, Precourt Institute for Energy, Chemical Engineering
  • Professor Roz Naylor, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
  • Professor David Lobell, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Environmental Earth System Science, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment 
  • Professor Marshall Burke (food - conflict nexus), Environmental Earth System Science, Center on Food Security and the Environment
  • Professor Steve Luby (food - health nexus), Stanford Medicine, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Freeman Spogli Institue for International Studies
  • Professor Scott Rozelle (food, education and development nexus), Co-director, Rural Education Action Program, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Center on Food Security and the Environment

 

Student-led Breakout Sessions

  • Christopher Seifert, Graduate Student, Environmental Earth System Science
    "Boondoggle or Risk Reducer? Crop insurance as the farm subsidy of the 21st century"
  • William Chapman, Graduate Student, CEE-Atmosphere and Energy
    "No Red Meat or a New Electric Vehicle, Food Choices and Emissions"
  • Priya Fielding-Singh, PhD Candidate, Sociology
    Maria Deloso, Coterminal B.S/M.A. Candidate, Environmental Earth System Science  
    "From Farm to Lunch Tray: Toward a Healthy and Sustainable Federal School Lunch Program"
  • Rebecca Gilsdorf, PhD Candidate, Civil & Environmental Engineering
    Angela Harris, PhD Candidate, Civil & Environmental Engineering
    "Poop and Pesticides: Looking beyond production to consider food contamination"
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Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center
326 Galvez Street
Stanford University

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Crowne Plaza Hotel Harbour City
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Senior Fellow, Emerita, Stanford Woods Institute and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies,
William Wrigely Professor, Emerita, Department of Environmental Social Sciences
Roz_low_res_9_11_cropped.jpg PhD

Rosamond (Roz) Naylor is the William Wrigley Professor, Emerita, of Global Environmental Policy in the Doerr School of Sustainability; and founding Director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment (FSE) at Stanford University. Her research focuses on policies and practices to improve global food security and protect the environment on land and at sea. She has been involved in numerous field-level research projects around the world with her students and has published widely on issues related to global food systems, food policy, and aquaculture. She is the co-chair of The Blue Food Assessment, an international initiative aimed at providing a comprehensive scientific evaluation of the sustainability, nutrition, equity, and justice dimensions of aquatic foods cultured and captured in freshwater and marine environments within the global food system. She is a Member of the National Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Fellow of the Ecological Society of America (ESA), a Pew Marine Fellow, and a Leopold Leadership Fellow. She is also the Chair of the Board of Directors for the Aspen Global Change Institute and a member of the Scientific Advisory Committee for Oceana. At Stanford, she teaches courses on The World Food Economy, Human Society and Environmental Change, and Food and Security.
 

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Ling_Cao.jpg PhD

Ling Cao completed her Ph.D. in Natural Resources and Environment at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Trained as an agronomist and environmental scientist, she has focused on interdisciplinary research at the interface between the sustainability of food and natural systems. Her dissertation research quantitatively assessed the sustainability of emerging shrimp farming systems and technologies, and in particular focused on applying these results to producers and consumers in China and US. In early 2018, Cao was selected as a recipient of the “National Thousand Talents Program for Distinguished Young Scholars,” an initiative of the Chinese government to attract high-level talent from overseas to work full-time in China. In addition, she was also selected as a fellow of the “Shanghai Thousand Talents Program” which aims to recruit top-talent who are leaders in their fields to help enhance Shanghai's future development and sustainable competitiveness. Cao currently works as an associate professor in the Institute of Oceanography at Shanghai Jiao Tung University and continues to work with Roz Naylor and colleagues on fisheries and aquaculture research.

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The present article explores the origin and changes in partnership agreements established between agro-industries and oil palm smallholders in Cameroon. The different forms of partnership which have existed over the years in the oil palm sector until now are assessed, notably the FONADER-sponsored smallholder scheme (1978 to 1991) and more recently the Afriland First Bank sponsored project of Socapalm Eseka (2007/2008 to present). Special attention is given to the factors and conditions that have influenced the outcomes of these partnerships, specifically the failure of the FONADER-sponsored smallholder scheme. The authors conclude that with the current absence of steady support from the government to oil palm smallholders, especially after the implementation of the structural adjustment plans, private partnership schemes between agro-industries and oil palm smallholders could be highly profitable for both stakeholders. Such partnerships can foster social cohesion and limit further encroachment of agro-industries into the primary forest, provided such partnership agreements are carefully planned and adequately implemented.

 

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Oilseeds and fats, Crops and Lipids
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