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Despite accelerating economic growth in India over the last thirty years, India’s structural transformation remains stunted, said economist Hans Binswanger-Mkhize at a May 10 FSE symposium on global food policy and food security. Unlike China, urban migration and labor absorption have been slower than expected, especially in the typically labor-intensive manufacturing sector. Formal sector jobs are few and declining as a share of employment, and agricultural employment (and growth) remains low.

The rural non-farm sector has been left to pick up the slack, and has emerged as the largest source of new jobs in the Indian economy. This will likely remain so over the next few decades given that two-thirds of India’s growing population is projected to live in rural areas. Add to the equation the need to increase crop yields by 50 percent under changing climate conditions and it becomes apparent that improving rural incomes and supporting agricultural growth is essential to decreasing poverty and unemployment in India now and in the future.

“The importance of India's rural non-farm sector shows us that structural transformation does not follow a recipe,” said commentator Marianne Banziger, a senior scientist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in Mexico.

While non-farm jobs offer significantly higher wages than farm labor, most jobs are informal and/or insecure (i.e., no health benefits, unemployment insurance or pensions). These jobs go mostly to men 18-26 years old who have some education, while the illiterate and women struggle to transition into this sector. Retail trade and transport, construction, and services (internet and phone booths, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, and hotels and restaurants) are growing especially fast, partly due to urban-rural spillovers, but manufacturing is still only 20 percent of non-farm jobs.

“For rural households, non-farm employment is not distress employment, but a profitable diversification strategy,” said Binswanger-Mkhize. “At the same time, it has selectively absorbed young males into wage employment, decreased the number of farmers, and increasingly concentrated women in agriculture, contributing to a progressive feminization of agriculture.” 

As a result, farms on average have declined in both land and household size, and have moved toward the production of higher-valued goods and a modern model of part-time farming. This transformation concerned Banziger.

“Will the urban and land-less poor be held hostage by part-time farmers?” she asked.

Banziger projects in the next 20 years food and energy price inflation will likely exceed the income growth of the urban poor. Food price increases will push net consumers, who spend a third of their income on food staples, back into poverty.

“For food prices to remain constant, farmers yield gains will have to increase by 50 percent on essentially the same land area, with less water, nutrients, energy, labor and as climate changes,” said Banziger. "The more we delay investments, the steeper the challenge.”

Fortunately, small farmers are now better equipped to respond to these challenges, but are still limited by scale. Precision irrigation and fertilization technology coupled with remote sensing and cell phone technology enable better yield predictions that affect nutrient application. Better farm-level nutrient management increases farmer income and nutrient use efficiency.

For an optimistic Indian future to be realized government policy must support ways in which households increase their incomes, said Binswanger-Mkhize. A positive outcome for rural areas depends on continued urban spillovers, and on better agriculture and rural development policies, institutions, and programs.

Productivity growth needs to be sustained at very high levels. This requires more responsive, accountable, and better-financed research systems, more diversification of agriculture, and larger, better financed, and more accountable agricultural extension system. India currently employs one-seventh the number of extension workers as China.

"Rapid policy and institutional change will be required to overcome poor performance of many government programs," said Binswanger-Mkhize. "Current subsidies to fertilizer, electricity, water, and support to crop prices are already large, but are an inefficient means to transfer income to farmers."

Direct payments may be a more efficient way of supporting income growth. This is beginning to happen with fertilizers, but should be extended to electricity and food subsidies, said Binswanger-Mkhize.

“Maybe the people who have been disadvantaged in the past are the core for future change. With appropriate support, smallholder farmers can become the engines for agricultural productivity growth and transform India's growing economy,” concluded Banziger. 

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China’s future economic growth is dependent on skilled and educated workers. However, recent studies have shown that only a little more than half of the students from poor, rural areas finish junior high school and enter academic or vocational high school. The low level of educational attainment of these students is not surprising given that China has a high level of poverty in rural areas, rapidly rising wages for unskilled work and a highly competitive education system. One problem behind the low rates of matriculation to high school is that, as early as grade 7, students may be misinformed about the returns to high school education and lack other career planning information and skills, such that they drop out before even graduating, lose motivation to perform well academically, and exclude high school from their future plans.

The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of providing information and career counseling in reducing dropout, improving academic performance, and increasing the number of grade 7 students who plan to attend high school in China’s poor, rural areas. To meet this objective, we conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial (RCT) using a sample of 132 junior high schools and roughly 20,000 students in 15 nationally-designated poor counties in Shaanxi and Hebei provinces. In the RCT we randomly selected and provided training for junior high school teachers to give students either a) information on the returns and costs associated with higher levels of schooling or b) career counseling to help students plan for their school and career options. We then evaluated whether students dropped out less, performed better academically, or planned to matriculate in academic and vocational high school more.

Richard and Rhoda Goldman Conference Room

Prashant Loyalka Assistant Research Fellow, China Institute for Educational Finance Research, Peking University. Research Affiliate, Rural Education Action Project. Speaker
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Connecting the Dots conference website

Stanford experts from a range of disciplines discuss the interconnections and interactions among humanity's needs for and use of water, food, energy, and environment. Drawing on their own research, the speakers illustrate and evaluate some of the ways in which decisions in one resource area can lead to trade-offs or co-benefits in others. Participants examine sustainable freshwater resources and uses in Africa, Asia, and the arid West. 

Panel: Africa - Water, Nutrition, Health and Poverty

China: Water, Food, Climate, and Policy


Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center

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When the computers arrived at Ma Guanghui’s primary school in China’s rural Qinghai Province, the principal worried his students would break them. It’s not that the third- and fourth-graders are a malicious bunch. They just wouldn’t keep their hands off the new machines.

“They were so enthusiastic because they had never seen computers before,” Ma said, mimicking how the children whacked the keyboards, poked the monitors and pounded the mice before realizing they work with just a click.

“They couldn’t leave them alone,” he said.

The 15 computers that were suddenly being used by about 60 students were part of an experiment to see whether educational software and computer-assisted learning techniques would boost the scores of China’s most disadvantaged students. It’s a question that Stanford researcher Scott Rozelle and his collaborators in the Rural Education Action Project have answered with a resounding “yes.”

An economist and senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Rozelle has worked for years to narrow the income and education gaps between China’s rural poor and urban middle-class. He’s now focusing much of his attention on bridging a digital divide that threatens to leave children without computer skills even farther behind.

His research – the first academic work to really measure those technological disparities – has revealed stark contrasts. While about 80 percent of Chinese students living in cities use the Internet at home, only 2 percent of those in rural areas have online access at home. No one is able to surf the Web at school, and few have access to working computers.

“This is probably the greatest digital divide of any country in the world,” Rozelle said during a March 22 conference at the newly opened Stanford Center at Peking University, where Ma and a few of his students came to discuss how computers have helped improve test scores.

Loaded with games and software that taught Ma’s students Mandarin, the computers provided by ADOC2.0 – a nongovernmental organization affiliated with the Acer computer company – had a quick payoff.

Within 10 weeks, test scores rose on average from the equivalent of a C-plus to a B.

“We were No. 1 in the whole school district,” Ma said. “All our students should have computers and Internet access”

Chinese officials agree. A 10-year-plan laid out by the government calls for every student in China to have access to the Internet.

“This is a very ambitious plan,” Zheng Dawai, a director in China’s Ministry of Education, said during the conference. “But the Internet is an important way to promote learning, especially in the rural areas.”

Rozelle says the costs of a bad education and missed opportunities for China's youngest generation are too big for China to ignore. Hundreds of thousands of migrants are making their ways from the countryside into big cities where jobs await.

But as wages go up, so will the demand for skilled labor. Being poor and looking for a job is one thing. Being poor and uneducated is another.

“Nearly 40 percent of China’s kids are in poor, rural areas,” Rozelle said. “What’s the nature of their education? Are they ready for a new era where you need to know how to use a computer and navigate the Web? We’re talking about more than 100 million rural kids going through the system without the skills they need.”

That premise sets the stage for a disenfranchised class, increased violence and greater poverty that can destabilize China and jeopardize its role as one of the world’s economic stars.

Rozelle’s goal is to influence Chinese policy with the results of his research and lead government officials to the decisions that will improve the health and education of the country's up-and-coming workforce.

He and his colleagues have already had success in tackling anemia, an iron deficiency that’s rampant in rural areas where diets are often unbalanced and consist of hardly any meat. Anemic children tend to do poorly in school because of the lethargy and lack of concentration that accompany the disease.

Thanks in large part to REAP studies that have shown students’ test score go up when they take vitamins or eat more meat and vegetables, the government has committed about $20 billion during the next decade to improving school lunches.

Now the REAP team is measuring the best ways to use technology to improve school performance so he’ll have the data he needs to convince government officials to move faster and spend more money on computer-assisted learning.

Along with computer manufacturer Dell Inc., Rozelle is now partnering with toy and game developer Mike Wood. Wood is the founder and CEO of SmartyAnts, a software program that teaches English as a second language and reading skills through a series of games where the player helps “teach” an ant avatar how to read, write and enjoy learning.

With the cost of technology getting cheaper – tablet computers can cost as little as $50 – Wood is looking for ways to get educational software into the hands of children in the world’s poorest areas.

“It’s possible to load a low-cost platform with top-notch software that’s personalized and will give kids from pre-K through sixth grade access to as good a curriculum as is available to the richest kids going to the richest private schools there are,” he said. “It’s possible. And it’s something we should be doing.”

Through his research and collaborations, Rozelle and his colleagues in the Chinese Academy of Sciences aim to convince Chinese officials that Wood is right.

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Stanford University launched a new research center at Peking University Wednesday.The Stanford Center serves as the headquarters for Stanford staff conducting research and overseas programs in China. FSE's Rural Education Action Program (REAP) will be among the center's first occupants.
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The Stanford Center at Peking University opened March 21, 2012.
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Stanford opened a research and education center at China’s Peking University, strengthening an already close academic bond and building a stronger tie to one of the world’s fastest-growing countries.

“Globalization is the defining characteristic of the 21st Century,” Stanford President John Hennessy said during an opening ceremony on March 21 that drew hundreds of academics, donors and government officials to the opening of the Stanford Center at Peking University.

“It is increasingly important for our students to understand what it means to be citizens of the world, to bring a more international perspective, to be able to communicate with others from different backgrounds or with different expertise,” he said. “Both Peking University and Stanford are stepping up to that challenge and moving to become more global institutions to address the challenges of this century. This new center exemplifies that.”

"It is increasingly important for our students to understand what it means to be citizens of the world, to bring a more international perspective, to be able to communicate with others from different backgrounds or with different expertise," Stanford President John Hennessy said at the opening of SCPKU.
Designed as a resource for the entire Stanford community and administered by the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, 10 programs and departments – including the School of Medicine’s Asian Liver Center, the Bing Overseas Studies Program and the Rural Education Action Project – will locate operations at SCPKU.

FSI faculty already doing research in China showcased their work during conferences held in conjunction with the opening of the center.

The new building is available to the several hundred Stanford scholars studying, researching and conducting university activities in China each year. It also offers the opportunity for Stanford faculty to work with academics from Peking University and other universities throughout China.

“Stanford is one of the most valued partners of Peking University,” PKU President Zhou Qifeng said. “The center will create more opportunities through collaborative research, student and faculty exchange programs, joint teaching and other activities.”

The center makes Stanford the first American university to construct a building for its use on a major Chinese university campus. SCPKU will allow current educational programs to expand, but will not grant Stanford degrees.

The center’s distinctiveness is reflected in the building that houses it – a 36,000-square-foot structure that combines Chinese and Western architecture. The courtyard building was constructed with interlocking mortise-and-tenon joinery – a classic Chinese technique that eliminates the need for nails or glue.

Hand-painted scenes depicting typical Chinese landscapes and views from Stanford’s campus are featured on the building beams. At the point where beams and columns meet, artists added Chinese symbols for teaching, learning and scholarship.

State-of-the-art classrooms, conference rooms and meeting spaces fill out the two floors below the courtyard. Skylights, interior gardens and a reflecting pool invoke a natural setting.

The melding of styles brings as much substance as symbolism.

The SCPKU opening drew hundreds of academics, donors and government officials.
SCPKU “marks a new era of collaboration between two outstanding universities,” Gary Locke, the U.S. ambassador to China, said during the opening ceremony. “It also represents a new bridge of understanding between our nations – and most importantly – our peoples.

“There are virtually no problems in the world today that cannot be solved if the people – the scientists and engineers, and the business people – of the United States and China join together,” Locke said. “And this center will help make that happen.”

Stanford’s relationship with China dates to the late 1970s, when the university began accepting Chinese graduate students. Students from China have accounted for the largest number of Stanford’s foreign graduate students for the past decade, with about 600 enrolled last year.

Those scholars are part of the 160,000 Chinese students studying in American colleges and universities every year, a number that eclipses the 16,000 American students taking classes in China, Locke said.

“We have to know much more about each other’s cultures, customs, traditions, values and languages so we can build a mutual trust and understanding that will allow us to face all of the challenges we face,” he said. “The way to build that trust starts with building people-to-people interactions. It starts with more student exchanges…and it most certainly starts with the Stanford center here at Peking University.”

Over the last 30 years, Stanford’s bond with Peking University has grown from an initial collaboration between the schools’ Asian language departments to a wide range of joint research and academic exchanges.

In 2004, Stanford’s undergraduate study abroad and internship programs began at Peking University. The study abroad program continues to be managed by the Bing Overseas Studies Program, which hosts roughly 60 undergraduates every year on the Peking University campus.  The internship programs are coordinated by the International, Comparative, and Area Studies Program.

The overseas studies program offers a broad curriculum taught by a Stanford faculty-in-residence who spends a 10-week quarter with the students in Beijing.  A range of topical and language courses are taught by Peking University faculty.

“The new center at PKU allows us to continue this dynamic program in a new environment designed to encourage interaction across disciplines and with graduate students and faculty from both universities,” said Irene Kennedy, the program’s executive director. “We also plan to continue supporting and developing interactions between Stanford and PKU students through language partnering and by including Chinese students in classes taught by Stanford faculty and associated field trips.”

Jean Oi and Andrew Walder – both senior fellows at the Freeman Spogli Institute – began building on that relationship in 2006 by envisioning a way to bolster Stanford research, teaching, training and outreach activities in China. Their ideas led to the creation of SCPKU and several new academic programs, including a law school exchange program.

The $7 million project is funded entirely from gifts made to the Stanford International Initiative. The lead donor was the charitable foundation of the family of Chien Lee, a Hong Kong-based private investor and Stanford emeritus trustee who received his bachelor's and master's degrees from the university in 1975 and his MBA from the Graduate School of Business four years later.

The SCPKU building is named for his father, the late Lee Jung Sen, who attended Peking University in the mid-1930s when it was Yenching University. Lee’s mother, Leatrice Lowe Lee, graduated from Stanford in 1945.

A bust of Lee Jung Sen sits in SCPKU’s courtyard, one level above the modern facility and surrounded by the more familiar, traditional Chinese architecture.

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Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy,
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REAP Project Manager for Keeping Kids in School
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James Chu manages the Keeping Kids in School projects at REAP. He has five years of experience researching educational issues in China. His research experience involves extensive quantitative and qualitative fieldwork in Shaanxi province and Beijing migrant schools. He has also designed and implemented several projects in Beijing benefiting migrant students. He is fluent in Mandarin and received his MA in Sociology at Stanford University.

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Along with the speeches and ceremonies to mark the opening of the Stanford Center at Peking University, Stanford scholars from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies are showcasing their work examining China’s promises, challenges and increasingly important role in the world.

The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center held a two-day workshop examining China’s relationships with its neighbors. The event draws on work being done by Thomas Fingar, FSI’s Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow, who is leading a new initiative to explore the nuances and complexity of China’s foreign relations and domestic issues.

Scott Rozelle, co-director of the Rural Education Action Project, planned a conference on Thursday exploring the impacts of technology on China’s health and education systems. For years, Rozelle has studied how basic medicine and better meals improve children’s performance in school. He’s lately been evaluating the best and most affordable ways to use new technology in rural Chinese schools.

On March 26 and 27, the Asia Health Policy Program will focus on the challenges China’s growing tobacco-control movement faces against a multibillion-dollar government-run industry. Anthropologist Matthew Kohrman, a specialist on tobacco in China, will lead the workshop examining the connections woven over the past 60 years between marketing and cigarette gifting, production and consumer demand, government policy and economic profit, and the other forces behind China’s smoking culture.

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Binswanger-Mkhize's talk will look at past and likely future agricultural growth and rural poverty reduction in the context of the overall economy of India, in which growth has accelerated sharply since the 1980s, but agriculture still has not followed suit. Despite slow growth, urban-rural consumption, income and poverty differentials have not risen. This is because urban-rural spillovers have led to a sharp acceleration of rural non-farm growth and income. Binswanger-Mkhize proposes an optimistic vision can be realized if agricultural growth accelerates, high and widely shared economic growth leads to strong spillovers to the rural economy, and the rural non-farm sector continues to flourish. This would enable the rural sector to keep up with income growth in the urban economy and rural poverty would rapidly decline. However, if agricultural growth fails to accelerate, and overall economic growth falters, a more pessimistic vision is also possible. Binswanger-Mkhize will also discuss the role of prices and wages in determining agricultural growth, rural poverty and nutrition, and the two interlinked income parity issues: rural-urban and agricultural-non-agricultural incomes parity.

Marianne Banziger, Deputy Director, Research & Partnership at International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) will provide commentary.

Bechtel Conference Center

Hans Binswanger-Mkhize Adjunct Professor Speaker School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing
Marianne Banziger Deputy Director, Research & Partnership Commentator International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)
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Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment (FSE) has received a $2 million grant from Cargill, a second gift from the company that raises its total contribution to FSE to $5 million over 10 years.

The announcement was made Nov. 10 at a dinner celebrating the launch of FSE as a full-scale research center. FSE has more than doubled in size in five years. Because of its growth and increasing importance of food security issues at Stanford and worldwide, it became an official center in September.

“The center’s rapid growth would not have been possible without the generous support of Cargill,” FSE Director and William Wrigley Senior Fellow Rosamond L. Naylor said. “Cargill’s initial investment provided seed-funding for the bold, new research and teaching that was happening at FSE while keeping our lights on and the staff running during our critical years of early development.”

A $3 million grant from Cargill in 2008 jump-started a visiting fellows program at FSE and helped build the infrastructure to support the center’s research.

The new grant will continue to provide program support, but will also be used to hire younger faculty and scholars to Stanford to work within the new Center.

Stanford-Cargill partnership

Stanford's partnership with Cargill extends back to 1976 when Cargill endowed Walter P. Falcon, then Director of Stanford's Food Research Institute and now FSE Deputy Director, with the Helen C. Farnsworth Professorship in International Agricultural Policy. The gift was intended to strengthen Stanford's work in agricultural policy, specifically as it relates to the international grain economy. FSI senior fellow Scott Rozelle now holds the Helen C. Farnsworth chair.

FSE and Cargill remain committed to helping feed a growing population while preserving the planet's natural resources. FSE is an applied group focused on providing real solutions to important food and agricultural issues.

“Poverty is the main issue driving food insecurity—it’s a question of access rather than food availability,” Naylor said.

FSE’s partnership with Cargill has demonstrated how Stanford-based research can be relevant to the private sector. FSE is conducting ongoing research on oil palm and land use issues in Indonesia that is helping inform and shape policy. Work on aquaculture feeds in China is another overlapping area of interest, as are ongoing assessments of biofuels in the U.S., Africa and Asia. Both have a stake in better understanding climate change impacts on agriculture and food commodity price volatility.

“It is clear to us at FSE—and increasingly to leadership of Stanford—that global food security will remain a critical issue within international policy circles,” said Naylor. “With support like the grant from Cargill, we are confident that Stanford can play a leading role in shaping the future policy discourse.”

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