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Journal Article

David Lobell, David Lobell, George Azzari
Environmental Research Letters, 2017

The future trajectory of crop yields in the United States will influence food supply and land use worldwide. We examine maize and soybean yields for 2000–2015 in the Midwestern U.S. using a new satellite-based dataset on crop yields at 30m resolution.

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Journal Article

David Lobell, Senthold Asseng
Environmental Research Letters, 2017

The potential impacts of climate change on crop productivity are of widespread interest to those concerned with addressing climate change and improving global food security. Two common approaches to assess these impacts are process-based simulation models, which attempt to represent key dynamic processes affecting crop yields, and statistical models, which estimate functional relationships between historical observations of weather and yields.

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Book

Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond L. Naylor
Oxford University Press, 2016

Over the last two decades global production of soybean and palm oil seeds have increased enormously. Because these tropically rainfed crops are used for food, cooking, animal feed, and biofuels, they have entered the agriculture, food, and energy chains of most nations despite their actual growth being increasingly concentrated in Southeast Asia and South America.

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Journal Article

Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal, Eran Bendavid
The Lancet Global Health, 2016

The ongoing decline in under-5 mortality ranks among the most significant public and population health successes of the past 30 years.

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Journal Article

William J. Burke, Thom. S. Jayne, J. Roy Black
Agricultural Economics, 2016

It is widely recognized that an “African green revolution” will require greater use of inorganic fertilizers. Often-made comparisons note that fertilizer use rates in Africa are just 10–20% of those in Asia, Europe and the Americas.

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Journal Article

Kaiyu Guan, David B. Lobell, Benjamin Sultan, Michela Biasuttid,, Christian Barone
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2016

In the coming decades, the already fragile agricultural system in West Africa will face further challenges in meeting food security, both from increasing population and from the impacts of climate change.

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Journal Article

Neal Jean, Marshall Burke, Michael Xie, W. Matthew Davis, David B. Lobell, Stefano Ermon
Science, 2016

Policy-makers in the world's poorest countries are often forced to make decisions based on limited data. Consider Angola, which recently conducted its first postcolonial census. In the 44 years that elapsed between the prior census and the recent one, the country's population grew from 5.6 million to 24.3 million, and the country experienced a protracted civil war that displaced millions of citizens.

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Journal Article

Esha Zaveri, Danielle S Grogan, Karen Fisher-Vanden, Steve Frolking, Richard B Lammers, Douglas H Wrenn, Alexander Prusevich , Robert E Nicholas
Environmental Research Letters, 2016

India is one of the world's largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India's agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people.

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Journal Article

Science, 2016

There have been dramatic advances in understanding the physical science of climate change, facilitated by substantial and reliable research support. The social value of these advances depends on understanding their implications for society, an arena where research support has been more modest and research progress slower. Some advances have been made in understanding and formalizing climate-economy linkages, but knowledge gaps remain [e.g., as discussed in (1, 2)].

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Journal Article

Halimatou Alaofe, Jennifer Burney, Rosamond L. Naylor, Douglas Taren
Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 2016
In 2007, "solar market gardens" were installed in 2 villages for women’s agricultural groups as a strategy for enhancing food and nutrition security. Data were collected through interviews at installation and 1 year later from all women’s group households (30–35 women/group) and from a random representative sample of 30 households in each village, for both treatment and matched-pair comparison villages. Comparison of baseline and endline data indicated increases in the variety of fruits and vegetables produced and consumed by SMG women’s groups compared to other groups.
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Journal Article

Sujith Ravi, Jordan Macknick, David Lobell, Christopher B. Field, Karthik Ganesan, Rishabh Jain, Michael Elchinger, Blaise Stoltenberg
Applied Energy, 2016
  • We explored the potential to colocate solar installations and agriculture.
  • Water use at solar installations are similar to amounts required for desert plants.
  • Co-located systems are economically viable in some areas.
  • Colocation can maximize land and water use efficiency in drylands.

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Journal Article

Thomas Hertel, David Lobell
Energy Economics, 2016

In this paper we discuss the scope of the adaptation challenge facing world agriculture in the coming decades. Due to rising temperatures throughout the tropics, pressures for adaptation will be greatest in some of the poorest parts of the world where the adaptive capacity is least abundant. We discuss both autonomous (market driven) and planned adaptations, distinguishing: (a) those that can be undertaken with existing technology, (b) those that involve development of new technologies, and (c) those that involve institutional/market and policy reforms.

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Journal Article

Bhupinder S. Farmaha, David Lobell, Katherine E. Boone, Kenneth G. Cassman, Haishun S. Yang, Patricio Grassini
Field Crops Research, 2016

Crop yield gap (Yg) can be disaggregated into two components: (i) one that is consistent across years and is, therefore, attributable to persistent factors that limit yields, and (ii) a second that varies from year to year due to inconsistent constraints on yields. Quantifying relative contributions of persistent and non-persistent factors to overall Yg, and identifying their underpinning causes, can help identify sound interventions to narrow current Yg and estimate magnitude of likely impact.

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Journal Article

Qingfeng Meng, Xinping Chen, David Lobell, Zhenling Cui, Yi Zhang, Haishun Yang, Fusuo Zhang
Scientific Reports, 2016

Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB).

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Journal Article

David Gustafson, Michael Hayes, Emily Janssen, David Lobell, Stephen Long, Gerald C. Nelson, Himadri B. Pakrasi, Peter Raven, G. Philip Robertson, Richard Robertson, Donald Wuebbles
BioScience, 2016

We're being warned of future grain failures—not by the dreams of a biblical Pharaoh, but by modern computer model predictions. Climate science forecasts rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and episodes of increasingly extreme weather, which will harm crop yields at a time when the world's growing population can ill afford declines, especially in its most productive areas, such as the US Midwest.

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Journal Article

David Gustafson, Michael Hayes, Emily Janssen, David Lobell, Stephen Long, Gerald C. Nelson, Himadri B. Pakrasi, Peter Raven, G. Philip Robertson, Richard Robertson, Donald Wuebbles
BioScience, 2015

We're being warned of future grain failures—not by the dreams of a biblical Pharaoh, but by modern computer model predictions. Climate science forecasts rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and episodes of increasingly extreme weather, which will harm crop yields at a time when the world's growing population can ill afford declines, especially in its most productive areas, such as the US Midwest.

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Journal Article

Marshall Burke, Solomon Hsiang, Edward Miguel
Nature, 2015

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature= while poor countries respond only linearly.

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Journal Article

Kaiyu Guan, Joseph A. Berry, Yongguang Zhang, Joanna Joiner, Grayson Badgley, David Lobell
Global Change Biology, 2015

Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity (i.e. electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses.

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Journal Article

Yi Zhao, XinPing Chen, ZhenLing Cui, David Lobell
Field Crops Research, 2015

Substantial gaps have been reported between the average farmer’s maize yield and yield potential in China, especially the North China Plain (NCP). This maize yield gap as identified by previous studies indicates large opportunities for raising yield by improving agronomy. Agronomic factors are either transient or persistent. Transient factors, which explain yield differences depending on unpredictable weather conditions, can have significantly different optimums from one year to another.

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Journal Article

Claudia Tebaldi, David Lobell
Climatic Change, 2015

We assess the benefits of climate change mitigation for global maize and wheat production over the 21st century by comparing outcomes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 as simulated by two large initial condition ensembles from NCAR’s Community Earth System Model. We use models of the relation between climate variables, CO2 concentrations, and yields built on observations and then project this relation on the basis of simulated future temperature and precipitation and CO2 trajectories under the two scenarios, for short (2021–2040), medium (2041–2060) and long (2061–2080) time horizons.

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Journal Article

Yvonne K. Nchanji, Raymond N. Nkongho, William A. Mala, Patrice Levang
Agroforestry Systems, 2015

Intercropping oil palm during its immature stage with food crops is usually blamed for its negative impact on the growth and future yields of palms. Agro-industries unanimously condemn such practice. For smallholders on the contrary, intercropping presents numerous advantages as it not only covers the weeding cost but also provides food and revenue while waiting for the palms to come into production.

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Journal Article

Kaiyu Guan, Benjamin Sultan, Michela Biasutti, Christian Baron, David Lobell
Geophysical Research Letters, 2015

Abstract: How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity and the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa.

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Journal Article

Marshall Burke, Solomon Hsiang, Edward Miguel
Annual Review of Economics, 2015

We review the emerging literature on climate and conflict. We consider multiple types of human conflict, including both interpersonal conflict, such as assault and murder, and intergroup conflict, including riots and civil war. We discuss key methodological issues in estimating causal relationships and largely focus on natural experiments that exploit variation in climate over time.

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Journal Article

David Lobell, David Thau, Christopher Seifert, Eric Engel, Bertis Little
Remote Sensing of Environment, 2015
  • A new approach to mapping crop yields is presented.
  • Estimates are made within Google's Earth Engine, allowing broad scale application.
  • Field-level estimates are tested against over 29,000 ground-based records.
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Journal Article

Jennifer K. Carah, Jeanette K. Howard, Sally E. Thompson, Anne G. Short Gianotti, Scott D. Bauer, Stephanie M. Carlson, David N. Dralle, Mourad W. Gabriel, Lisa L. Hulette, Brian J. Johnson, Curtis A. Knight, Sarah J. Kupferberg, Stefanie L. Martin, Rosamond L. Naylor, Mary E. Power
Bioscience, 2015

The liberalization of marijuana policies, including the legalization of medical and recreational marijuana, is sweeping the United States and other countries. Marijuana cultivation can have significant negative collateral effects on the environment that are often unknown or overlooked.

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