Publications

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    Journal Article

    Ling Cao, Rosamond L. Naylor, Patrik Henriksson, Duncan Leadbitter, Marc Metian, Max Troell, Wenbo Zhang
    Science, 2015
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    Journal Article

    S. Asseng, F. Ewert, P. Martre, R.P. Rotter, David Lobell, D. Cammarano, B.A. Kimball, M.J. Ottman, G.W. Wall, J.W. White, M.P. Reynolds, P.D. Alderman, P.V.V. Prasad, P.K. Aggarwal, J. Anothai, B. Basso, C. Biernath, A.J. Challinor, G. De Sanctis, J. Doltra, E. Fereres, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, G. Hoogenboom, L.A. Hunt, R.C. Izaurralde, M. Jabloun, C.D. Jones, K.C. Kersebaum, A-K. Koehler, C. Muller, S. Naresh Kuman, C. Nendel, G. O'Leary, J.E. Olesen, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, E. Eyshi Rezaei, A.C. Ruane, M.A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, C. Stockle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, P.J. Thorburn, K. Waha, E. Wang, D. Wallach, J. Wolf, Z. Zhao, Y. Zhu
    Nature Climate Change, 2014
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    Journal Article

    Xinping Chen, Zhenling Cui, Mingshen Fan, Peter Vitousek, Ming Zhao, Wenqi Ma, Zhenlin Wang, Weijian Zhang, Xiaoyuan Yan, Jianchang Yang, Xiping Deng, Qiang Gao, Qiang Zhang, Shiwei Guo, Jun Ren, Shiqing Li, Youliang Ye, Zhaohui Wang, Jianliang Huang, Qiyuan Tang, Yixiang Sun, Xianlong Peng, Jiwang Zhang, Mingrong He, Yunji Zhu, Jiquan Xue, Guiliang Wang, Liang Wu, Ning An, Liangquan Wu, Lin Ma, Weifeng Zhang, Fusuo Zhang
    Nature, 2014

    Agriculture faces great challenges to ensure global food security by increasing yields while reducing environmental costs. Here we address this challenge by conducting a total of 153 site-year field experiments covering the main agro-ecological areas for rice, wheat and maize production in China.

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    Journal Article

    B. Sultan, Kaiyu Guan, M. Kouressy, M. Biasutti, C. Piani, G.L. Hammer, G. McLean, David Lobell
    Environmental Research Letters, 2014

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area.

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    Book

    Rosamond L. Naylor
    Oxford University Press, 2014

    The Evolving Sphere of Food Security seeks to answer two important questions: How do the priorities and challenges of achieving food security change over time as countries develop economically? And how do the policies used to promote food security in one country affect nutrition, food access, natural resources, and national security in other countries? The volume presents the many faces and facets of food security—their symptoms, their roots, and their possible remedies—through the lens of a multidisciplinary group of scholars.

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    Journal Article

    Troell, M., Rosamond L. Naylor, M. Metian, M. Beveridge, P. Tyedmers, C. Folke, K. Arrow, S. Barrett, A-S. Crépin, P. Ehrlich, Å. Gren, N. Kautsky, S. Levin, K. Nyborg, H. Österblom, S. Polasky, M. Scheffer, B. Walker, T. Xepapadeas, A. de Zeeuw
    PNAS, 2014

    Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector and continues to expand alongside terrestrial crop and livestock production. Using portfolio theory as a conceptual framework, we explore how current interconnections between the aquaculture, crop, livestock, and fisheries sectors act as an impediment to, or an opportunity for, enhanced resilience in the global food system given increased resource scarcity and climate change.

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    Journal Article

    David Lobell, Claudia Tebaldi
    Environmental Research Letters, 2014

    In many discussions of climate change impacts in agriculture, the large magnitudes of expected impacts toward the end of the century are used to emphasize that most of the risks are to future generations. However, this perspective misses the important fact that demand growth for food is expected to be much slower after 2050 than before it, and that the next two decades represent the bulk of growth before 2050.

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    Journal Article

    David Lobell
    Global Food Security, 2014

    • Adaptation should be defined strictly as actions that reduce climate change impacts.

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    Journal Article

    Scott Barrett, Timothy M. Lenton, Antony Millner, Stephen Carpenter, John M. Anderies, F. Stuart Chapin III, Anne-Sophie Crepin, Paul Ehrlich, Carl Folke, Victor Galaz, Terry Hughes, Nils Kautsky, Eric Lambin, Rosamond L. Naylor, Karine Nyborg, Stephen Polasky, Marten Scheffer, James Wilen, Anastasios Xepapadeas, Aart de Zeeuw
    Nature Climate Change, 2014

    Stratospheric injection of sulphate aerosols has been advocated as an emergency geoengineering measure to tackle dangerous climate change, or as a stop-gap until atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are reduced. But it may not prove to be the game-changer that some imagine.

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    Journal Article

    Fran Moore, David Lobell
    Nature Climate Change, 2014

    Projecting the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires knowing or assuming how farmers will adapt. But empirical estimates of the effectiveness of this private adaptation are scarce and the sensitivity of impact assessments to adaptation assumptions is not well understood. Here we assess the potential effectiveness of private farmer adaptation in Europe by jointly estimating both short-run and long-run response functions using time-series and cross-sectional variation in subnational yield and profit data.

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    Journal Article

    Raymond N. Nkongho,Yvonne K. Nchanji, Ofundem Tataw and Patrice Levang
    African journal of agricultural research, 2014

    The present study was carried out in four of the seven oil palm production basins generated during the Fonader-sponsored smallholder development scheme in the late Seventies and Eighties. The four basins include: Eseka, Dibombari, Muyuka, and Lobe. The objective of our study was to understand why oil palm smallholders prefer to mill their fresh fruit bunches (FFB) despite the low extraction rates of the artisanal mills and the remarkable presence of industrial mills where they could sell bunches.

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    Journal Article

    David Lobell, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker, Bertis B. Little, Roderick M. Rejesus, Graeme L. Hammer
    Science, 2014

    A key question for climate change adaptation is whether existing cropping systems can become less sensitive to climate variations. We use a field-level dataset on maize and soybean yields in the central United States for 1995 through 2012 to examine changes in drought sensitivity. Although yields have increased in absolute value under all levels of stress for both crops, the sensitivity of maize yields to drought stress associated with high vapor pressure deficits has increased.

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    Journal Article

    A.J. Challinor, J. Watson, David Lobell, S.M. Howden, D.R. Smith, N. Chhetri
    Nature Climate Change, 2014

    Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation.

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    Journal Article

    Raymond N. Nkongho, Laurène Feintrenie, Patrice Levang
    Oil crops and supply chain in Africa, 2014

    The present study is an evaluation of the current strengths and weaknesses of the oil palm smallholder sector in Cameroon, or more precisely of the non-industrial sector, as some holdings owned by elites can reach hundreds of hectares. A randomized sample of oil palm producers was chosen after categorization into elites, migrants, natives and company workers (past and present) in four palm oil production basins in the Southern part of the country.

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    Journal Article

    Sujith Ravi, David Lobell, Christopher Field
    Environmental Science and Technology, 2014
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    Book

    Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond L. Naylor
    Stanford Center on Food Security and the Environment, 2013

    Frontiers in Food Policy: Perspectives on sub-Saharan Africa is a compilation of research stemming from the Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The series, and this volume, have brought the world's leading policy experts in the fields of food and agricultural development together for a comprehensive dialogue on pro-poor growth and food security policy.

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    Journal Article

    Alice Chiu, Luping Li, Shujing Guo, Junfei Bai, Chris Fedor, Rosamond L. Naylor
    Aquaculture, 2013

    China dominates the global aquaculture industry, most clearly with its massive production and consumption of low trophic-level carp species and its rapidly rising output and exports of tilapia. Although these fish do not require a high percentage of fishmeal in their diets, their large production volumes contribute to China's leading role in global fishmeal consumption. The magnitude of China's dependence on fishmeal supplies – and hence the pressure it places on wild forage fisheries – remains a contentious issue.

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    Journal Article

    Solomon M. Hsiang, Marshall Burke
    Climatic Change, 2013

    Abstract: Are violent conflict and socio-political stability associated with changes in climatological variables? We examine 50 rigorous quantitative studies on this question and find consistent support for a causal association between climatological changes and various conflict outcomes, at spatial scales ranging from individual buildings to the entire globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an anomalous millennium.

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    Journal Article

    Solomon M. Hsiang, Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel
    Science, 2013

    Abstract: A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world.

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    Journal Article

    Dáithí Stone, Maximilian Auffhammer, Mark Carey, Gerrit Hansen, Christian Huggel, Wolfgang Cramer, David Lobell, Ulf Molau, Andrew Solow, Lourdes Tibig, Gary Yohe
    Climate Change, 2013

    Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines.

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    Journal Article

    Jennifer Burney, Rosamond Naylor, Sandra L. Postel
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013

    Distributed irrigation systems are those in which the water access (via pump or human power), distribution (via furrow, watering can, sprinkler, drip lines, etc.), and use all occur at or near the same location. Distributed systems are typically privately owned and managed by individuals or groups, in contrast to centralized irrigation systems, which tend to be publicly operated and involve large water extractions and distribution over significant distances for use by scores of farmers.

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    Journal Article

    Sharon Gourdji, Adam Sibley, David Lobell
    Environmental Research Letters, 2013
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